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Doctor of economics and Business and former president of the National Institute of Statistics (INE) 2011 to 2018, Gregorio Izquierdo (Madrid, 1969) is from a few months ago the director of the Institute of Economic Studies (IEE). In telephone conversation, argues that the 140,000 million in loans and transfers from the Plan the Reconstruction should be used in projects justified and for the future of the Spanish economy.
—How would you rate the EAPS for the second quarter?
—This EPA is not comparable with any other, and therefore must be interpreted with great caution, but not without concern. Starting, the fall in hours worked, in the order of 22%, expected to faithfully, adjusted for the productivity, the order of deterioration of historical GDP that we have lived, that is much more significant that the adjustment of only 5.4% in the occupation. A fact that is particularly worrying is that only 13.9 million people worked effectively in this quarter of the 18.6 million employed persons, with 4.7 million people are still considered to be statistically occupied, even if they have not worked for to be STRONG or work stoppages, partial. In addition, 1.6 million of unemployed people have been considered inactive by not being able to find employment in the landfill. These two exceptional circumstances, are transitory, and may therefore result in a significant increase in unemployment in the coming quarters.
–Can thwart the recovery of the third quarter the increase of outbreaks and quarantine approved by the United Kingdom?
–One of the keys of a crisis, is his communication. In this, to try to put a value on the management of some over others is sin, sometimes, fear-mongering, which benefits no one, but that inevitably leads to distrust. In any case, it is a bad news that is not justified with the smaller spread relative to currently existing in Spain compared to the Uk and that we should try to revert as soon as possible, as this quarantine, assumes unjustified alarm about Spain as a destination, which is going to lead to a significant retraction of the flow of tourists to external, with the consequent negative impact on activity and employment.
–how Should be used the Recovery Fund to compensate affected sectors or provide incentives to innovators?
–we Can address both these needs. There is that spur to innovative sectors, with greater capacity for growth and drag, but also to help the sectors most affected, such as tourism. Does not have to be exclusive. In fact, the investment priority aimed at the ecological transition and digitization are to reach all sectors, as they are necessary to improve the competitiveness and resilience of all types of businesses. What is crucial is that they prioritize those investments that have greater positive impact on the ability of growth and business activity and future employment.
–is There scope for rebates to temporary VAT in sectors which are particularly affected as hospitality?
–The Government could consider in these moments a downgrade of a temporary VAT in certain sectors, as have done other countries such as Germany or the United Kingdom. It would be a step that would alleviate in part some of the sectors most affected by the crisis. Since then, spearheading a rise in taxes, especially on businesses, or the savings, would be especially harmful to the recovery and activity. If we want more public revenue, the only way is to prioritize the recovery and the fight against the underground economy, because as we have estimated in the IEE, to try to converge on the public revenue without doing it before in income could be to destroy in the medium term up to ten points of GDP and of the order of two million jobs.
–How do you reduce the duality in labour between permanent and temporary, as the us has asked the European Commission?
–The duality is less of a problem on the side of our elevated unemployment rate, which is also a priority for the European Commission. The current employment framework has shown strong benefits in relation to that replaced by what it is not prudent to revert back and less in the middle of a crisis. On the one hand, increased the sensitivity of employment with respect to growth in the era of expansion. On the other, is facilitating more efficiently the maintenance of employment in this recession, as introduced as a novelty in Spain that our companies could use the same mechanisms of internal flexibility and adaptation that were common in most of Europe. If anything has taught us this crisis, is that the prescriptions of the past, especially those that never worked well, can hardly be the solutions of the future in a reality much more adverse and difficult.
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