Is the political landscape changing? The pension reform seems to be reshuffling the cards, the presidential majority losing support, the left and the right still having difficulty being heard. Will the current situation push the National Rally up again? It is still too early to say, but a new survey published by Le Figaro allows us to learn a little more about the state of mind of the French.

According to this Ifop-Fiducial study for Le Figaro Magazine, Marine Le Pen would be a big winner… If voters were called to the polls today. Remember, on April 10, 2022, the first round of the presidential election took place, which took Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen to the next round. If the outgoing president was finally elected for a second term with 58.55% of the vote – against 41.45% for Marine Le Pen – how much would he have in this second first round?

As Le Figaro explains, “the former president of the National Rally is the only one to take advantage of the situation of political chaos created by the text on pension reform”. A scenario which is not a surprise for elected officials and which was feared by the government. In detail, here are what the results would be if the first round took place today, according to the Ifop poll.

These results were taken into account without a presidential campaign, which could reshuffle the cards if the vote took place today. One thing is certain, Emmanuel Macron will not be able to represent the presidential majority in the next election, in 2027. Who could succeed him against Marine Le Pen? We already know what the second round could look like.

Who will be Emmanuel Macron’s dolphin? The president will soon have to appoint a successor and choose well so that the presidential camp has its chances in 2027. According to an Ifop poll, only one would really have a chance against Marine Le Pen.

As Le Figaro explains, this survey shows that “the tripartite system born in 2017, reinforced in 2022, risks extending into 2027”. Three blocks clash: “The left block formed by the Nupes, that of the center, embodied by Emmanuel Macron then the one who will be the next candidate of the majority and finally the National Rally”.

Here is who would be in the second round, if the French voted now…

According to the results of this Ifop poll for Le Figaro Magazine, the former Prime Minister is the only one of the presidential majority to qualify for the second round after Marine Le Pen. By investing Bruno Le Maire, Gérald Darmanin or François Bayrou, the presidential party would be eliminated in the first round of the presidential election.

If he would qualify far from Marine Le Pen (36% of the vote), Edouard Philippe would be ahead of Jean-Luc Mélenchon, whether he is running as the leader of rebellious France (17%) or as a candidate for a coalition of the left under the Nupes banner (22%).