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Preparing for Rain: Flood and Landslide Risks in Fire-Scarred Los Angeles

Southern California is bracing for its first significant rain of the winter, with forecasts predicting a 10% to 20% chance of flash flooding and debris flow in recently burned areas of Los Angeles County. The threat is significant enough to prompt warnings from the National Weather Service for residents to prepare for potential landslides and flooding in vulnerable areas.

The Potential Risks

Areas recently scorched by wildfires, including the burned regions of the Palisades, Franklin, Eaton, Hughes, and Bridge fires, are at the highest risk for flooding and debris flow. The U.S. Geological Survey has identified these burn scars as having the greatest potential for significant landslides due to their proximity to communities and vulnerable infrastructure. The probability of flooding and debris flow has increased to 10% to 20%, up from the initial forecast of 5% to 10%.

How Debris Flow Works

The intense heat from wildfires can make soil impermeable to water, leading to surface runoff that picks up rocks and debris as it flows downhill. This can result in mudflows and more destructive debris flows, posing a threat to homes and roads in affected areas. While the most likely outcome is minor impacts, the potential for significant debris flows remains a concern.

Weather Forecast and Recommendations

A flood watch has been issued for Sunday at 4 p.m. through Monday at 4 p.m., with the period of highest concern expected Sunday night. Residents are advised to avoid recently burned areas, use sandbags to protect property, and stock up on supplies in case road access is blocked. Rainfall estimates have been updated, with 1 to 2 inches expected in the mountains of Los Angeles and Ventura counties, and up to 2 inches in San Bernardino.

Additional Weather Concerns

In addition to heavy rainfall, there is a 15% to 25% chance of thunderstorms across several counties, with isolated areas facing intense rainfall rates that could trigger debris flows. Gusts of up to 60 mph are forecasted in the Antelope Valley foothills, posing risks of airport delays, power outages, and falling trees. Snow levels could drop to 3,500 feet above sea level, with several inches of snow expected in mountainous regions.

As Southern California prepares for the upcoming storm, residents are urged to stay informed, take necessary precautions, and remain vigilant in the face of potential flooding and landslides. Stay safe and be prepared for whatever Mother Nature may bring your way!