Pension reform: what consequences if the cross-partisan motion of censure is adopted

On Thursday March 16, Prime Minister Elisabeth Borne committed before the National Assembly Article 49, paragraph 3 of the Constitution, thus overriding the vote of the deputies in order to push through the much-maligned pension reform, as reported our colleagues from the Midi Libre. Following the many comings and goings of the text between the Assembly, then the Senate and finally the Joint Joint Commission, many people did not necessarily expect this passage in force from the executive. The result of the deputies’ vote was very far from having a certain positive outcome for the presidential majority, and the constitutional apparatus would have left for a new series of debate and discussion sessions until the expiry of the 50-day deadline imposed by the framework for adopting the text.

The framework in question is that of an amending finance law for social security. At the end of these 50 days, the executive could still have invoked the famous article 47 paragraph 1, allowing it to pass the project by ordinance. President Emmanuel Macron and the government of Elisabeth Borne will have preferred to put an end to the democratic debate, even though the demonstrations of public and popular opinion were becoming stronger and stronger, contesting the reform project.

Following the engagement of the responsibility of the State by 49.3, the only recourse remaining for the representatives of the people is the tabling of motions of censure, as reported by La Chaîne Parlementaire. In order for a motion of censure to be tabled, it must be signed by one tenth of the deputies of the National Assembly. As usual since the beginning of this five-year term, which saw last week the 11th application of 49.3 since its beginning, the parliamentary group of the National Rally hastened to file one.

The Nupes or the LFI, for their part, abstained for the first time, bowing to the hope that the famous transpartisan censure motion presented by the Liot group represents for them. Tabled the day after the invocation of 49.3, it will be submitted to the vote of the deputies this Monday, March 20 at 4 p.m.

If the motion is adopted, the consequences will go far beyond the withdrawal of the pension reform project.

If the motion of censure is adopted, the first consequence will be the prevention of the definitive adoption of the text of the pension reform initiated by the invocation of article 49, paragraph 3 of the Constitution by the Prime Minister. Moreover, the motion of censure makes it possible, literally, to overthrow the government in place. This means that Elisabeth Borne will be dismissed, at least temporarily, from her duties.

President Emmanuel Macron would then have the possibility of dissolving the National Assembly, which corresponds precisely to the scenario that unfolded the last time that a motion of censure was adopted by the National Assembly, under the presidency of Charles de Gaule. . New legislative elections would then be held, between 20 and 40 days after the dissolution. It will then be up to the President to choose a Prime Minister, who will be responsible for forming a new government.

However, the odds of the partisan motion actually passing on that day remain relatively slim.

A motion of censure can only be adopted with an absolute majority of votes in favour. This means that only votes in favor will be counted, not abstentions or votes against. An absolute majority constitutes half of the votes of the Assembly, plus 1. It would therefore require a total of 287 deputies out of 573 voting in favor. For the moment, the votes on which the group at the origin of the tabling of the motion of censure can count amounts to a total of approximately 262, namely: the 149 deputies of Nupes, 20 deputies of the Liot group ( with a few exceptions), 88 deputies from the National Rally and finally some of the 5 non-registered deputies.

There would therefore be about twenty votes missing for the adoption of the motion of censure. All eyes are therefore on the Republican deputies, the only ones who can tip the scales. Even if some of them oppose the reform project, it is unlikely that enough will decide to vote in favor of a motion of no confidence. Indeed, they could eventually lose several seats in the National Assembly in the context of new legislative elections.