Reform, not reform? Lately, the transformation of the French model of intergenerational solidarity seems to be moving away. This was one of the main commitments of the President of the Republic, who organized all or part of his electoral campaign around this theme… and who nevertheless continued to push back his calendar, recalls Capital. Initially, the project had to be started quickly. From now on, our colleagues have fun, it has become “urgent to wait”. So many people are now wondering: what if Emmanuel Macron simply did not reform pensions?

This is a question that the executive wanted to answer, informs the Journal du Net. “We are maintaining the summer of 2023 as the horizon for the entry into force of the first effects of the reform,” declared the Minister of Labor Olivier Dussopt, during an interview with Le Parisien. The Prime Minister also chose to insist on the question: “Our system needs a pension reform”, she affirmed at the beginning of July, in front of an audience of parliamentarians gathered at the Palais Bourbon. Discussions with the unions should begin around the start of the school year, during the month of September.

The main orientations of a potential pension reform carried out by the government and the President of the Republic are known. That being said, the vagueness persists… and it turns out to be quite marked, as explained by the regional daily Center Presse Aveyron. Not enough to deceive the union representatives, obviously, since many of the latter say they are already opposed to the project. The CGT and Sud even filed a strike notice for September 29, specify our colleagues.

In fact, the reform desired by Emmanuel Macron is based on two pillars, explains economist Philippe Crevel: “The gradual postponement of the legal retirement age, of course, but above all the abolition of special schemes”. It remains to be seen whether all this will be possible…

Some might fear the uncertainty created by the current context. Are we to believe that Emmanuel Macron no longer talks about the reform so as not to have to carry it out? Because he plans to change some of the elements of the project? Not according to the director of the Cercle de l’Epargne, who also founded the study company Lorello Ecodata. “The project remains a priority for Emmanuel Macron, who has regularly recalled it,” he believes, sweeping away the schedule postponements that have occurred since the president’s re-election. “He has to deal with parliamentary action which makes the adoption of the reform considerably more complex. With an absolute majority, the project had proved difficult during the previous five-year term. Today, we have to deal with a relative majority and a potential ally on the side of the Republicans. But they will make you pay dearly for their possible support…”, judges the expert.

Another reason could push the Head of State not to go too far right away: “In politics, you have to be careful not to open too many fronts at the same time”, underlines Philippe Crevel, listing the subjects already on today’s agenda. “Aligning retirement with the question of purchasing power could be dangerous, politically speaking. Since the Yellow Vests, the executive has been particularly careful not to accumulate distinct foci likely to crystallize and promote the creation of an opposition front”, specifies the economist.

The sauce with which the French and the French could be eaten has, in fact, something to annoy them potentially.

“Emmanuel Macron has already announced that he will not take up the text initially defended during the previous term of office. He no longer wants a universal scheme per point and now wants the convergence of pension schemes, which requires the abolition of special treatments”, explains economist Philippe Crevel from the outset, not without immediately clarifying his point. : “He is also considering the possibility of postponing the legal retirement age”.

This type of project could prove to be quite unpopular. “All the polls indicate two things: the postponement of the retirement age is very widely rejected by French men and women. On the other hand, they also have the feeling that a reform is necessary”, indeed recalls the economist.

Not enough to cry wolf, however, judges the specialist. “The problem of pensions has been discussed for thirty years. We know all the concerns, funding and demographics, as well as all the possible solutions. We now have to make a choice: do we want to make active people contribute more, at the risk of undermining the competitiveness of our companies, reduce retirement pensions directly or indirectly… or that we prefer to postpone the age of departure”, argues the macro-economist, of liberal obedience.