(LONDON) Oil prices were up slightly on Thursday, pushed by signs of increased demand from the United States, the blockage of supplies from northern Iraq, but also by the possible decline in the Russian offer.
By 5:15 a.m. EST, a barrel of North Sea Brent crude for May delivery was up 0.74% at $78.86.
Its American equivalent, a barrel of West Texas Intermediate (WTI), for delivery the same month, gained 0.99% to 73.69 dollars.
The sharp drop in commercial oil reserves in the United States for the week ended March 24 (-7.5 million barrels of crude) pushed both oil benchmarks higher.
Data released Wednesday by the US Energy Information Agency (EIA) surprised the market, which was expecting a small rise in inventories.
The EIA also noted new signs of firming US demand, which is now 3% above its level at this time last year.
“From this perspective, unless the macroeconomic outlook deteriorates significantly, low oil prices should be temporary,” said Tamas Varga of PVM Energy.
On the crude supply side, the halt in Iraqi oil exports from the autonomous region of Kurdistan is still cited by analysts as a factor supporting prices.
These exports represent a shortfall of 450,000 barrels of crude per day.
Over the longer term, UBS analysts expect “increasing Chinese crude imports and declining Russian production to push prices higher in the coming quarters.”
“Chinese crude imports have been very strong so far in March,” analysts said, but demand from the country, the world’s largest crude importer, has yet to return to pre-COVID-19 pandemic levels.
On the Russian supply side, the Kremlin announced last week to extend the reduction of its crude production by 500,000 barrels per day until the end of June, more than a month after ordering this reduction in retaliation for the various Western sanctions targeting its oil. .
And “although the production cut promised by Russia has not resulted in a visible decline in Russian exports so far”, UBS continues to anticipate a decline in Russian supply.
