The developments in Venezuela are currently exciting. It will succeed opposition leader Juan Guaido to force President Maduro from office? It will come to violence? And what will follow?

Martin Hock

editor in the economy.

F. A. Z.

For a large part of the foreign policy, it seems clear that the future of the South American country is not with Maduro and Guaido, the call to the transitional President learns a lot of support. On Monday, the United States imposed sanctions against Venezuela’s state Oil company PDVSA. The government in Washington under the domestic refineries Transfers to the company said. American companies want to continue to get Oil from the South American country, for the purchase price now on blocked accounts Deposit.

PDVSA is the virtually the only significant source of revenue for the Venezuelan government, even if the Oil production of the ölreichsten country in the world is long laid low, and not even two-thirds of the funding of the year 2006.

The financial markets have positioned themselves clearly: The prices of Venezuelan bonds have risen since the beginning of the year to around 50 percent and record to the highest level since November, 2017, as the country remained the payment of $ 200 million in interest on its Dollar bonds guilty. Better yet, the courses of the PDVSA bonds, which rose in part to 80 per cent developed.

The statement is clear: The financial markets put on a change of power and the fact that the debt be re-paid. The struggle for the regime change and possible restructuring will be long and risk his Empire, writes Carlos De Sousa, an Analyst at Oxford Economics. The Downside of the bonds was, however, limited. Because even if the prices have risen strongly, and so they came but from a low level in a little more than 10 percent of the nominal value. Now PDVSA are traded-bonds of between 25 and 30 per cent of the nominal value and bonds to discounts of 30% to 35% – still very high Risk.

Venezuelan sovereign bond due 2027 VENEZUELA 97/27 — — (–) trade gate, Stuttgart, Frankfurt 1T 1W 3M 1J 3J 5J For detail view

It was too early, the victory of the Opposition declare, because more support for the military, the government of Maduro, writes de Sousa, given the recent speculation about a us Invasion of a cancellation. On Monday, at a press conference random a legible hand-written note from John Bolton, national security adviser, Donald trump Furore. “5000 soldiers to Colombia” was there to read, allegedly, and was not even denied by the White house.

De Sousa feels more stitches to a continuation of the policy of needle: Maduro will not expel American diplomats with violence, but the authorities had proposed to reduce the power of the American Embassy. Maduro had given the diplomats 72 hours to leave the country, but the American foreign Ministry said that it will not comply with this arrangement, after Guaidó have to maintain the relations.

the sanctions were blocked, according to Bolton Venezuelan assets in the amount of 7 billion dollars. Maduro condemned the Freezing of the assets as a “Robbery” and instructed PDVSA President Manuel Quevedo, before American and international courts against the sanctions. De Sousa keeps the American strategy still risky, but he believes that the opportunities outweigh the risks.