Who among Ottawa, Montreal, Detroit and Buffalo will dominate in the next decade? After the Sabers the day before, place at the state of the forces of the Red Wings today, in the second installment of our series of analysis over four days.
The Red Wings have missed the playoffs the past six seasons after 25 straight appearances. They were getting close a few weeks ago, but wisely their general manager Steve Yzerman hasn’t changed his long-term plan.
Potential unrestricted free agent Tyler Bertuzzi, 28, among their top scorers in recent years, 30 goals in 2021-22, was traded to the Boston Bruins for first- and fourth-round picks in 2024.
In an even more stunning move, 25-year-old Filip Hronek, 38 points in 60 regular season games, the busiest defenseman after Moritz Seider with an average ATS of 21:32 per game, moved to the Vancouver Canucks with a fourth-round pick in 2023 for first-round picks (the one the New York Islanders got for Bo Horvat) and second-round picks in 2023.
The Red Wings had drafted six times in the top 10 since 2017 and 31 times in the first three rounds. Yzerman opted to hoard more picks to better compete long-term with rebuilding clubs in his section, Ottawa, Montreal and Buffalo.
Moritz Seider, 22, and Simon Edvinsson, 20, were hard to miss Tuesday night at the Bell Center against the Canadiens. Seider, the right-hander, 6-foot-4, 205 pounds, Edvinsson the left-hander, 6-foot-6, 209 pounds. They are the foundation upon which rests the future of the Wings.
The German Seider was drafted a little early in the eyes of some observers, sixth overall in 2019, behind Alex Turcotte, ahead of Dylan Cozens, but no one is questioning the Red Wings’ decision today. He won the Calder Trophy last year after a 50-point season in 82 games.
Edvinsson was also drafted sixth in 2021. Like Seider, he spent his first winter in North America in the American League. He did, however, get a recall by Detroit last week after amassing 27 points in 51 games at Grand Rapids.
Seider is already the undisputed number one defenseman for the Wings. Edvinsson showed great mobility on Tuesday for a defender of his size and an impressive ability to spot attackers in transition.
We are also betting a lot on the arrival of another giant and gifted defender, William Wallinder, barely 20 years old, second round choice in 2020 (32nd overall), already a pillar at Rögle in the Swedish first division (SHL ), Canadian prospect Adam Engström’s team, with 26 points in 50 games. Seider also played Rögle and achieved similar production at age 20. Wallinder signed his first contract with the organization on March 27 and will finish the American League season in Grand Rapids.
There is less depth on offense with the Red Wings than with the Sabres, for example, despite the presence of some interesting elements.
We finally seem to have found a worthy offensive center to eventually support captain Dylan Larkin, 26, retained for eight more seasons by Steve Yzerman last month for an annual salary of 8.7 million. Larkin is having the best season of his career with 76 points in as many games.
Michael Rasmussen, 9th overall pick in 2017 and Joe Veleno, 30th overall pick in 2018, are unlikely to be the lucky ones, even though they have been tipped for the job for a while. Barring a stunning turnaround, their cap has been set at a third line.
Marco Kasper is the prodigal son. Drafted 8th overall in 2022, who knows if he won’t even become the best center in his class? The 18-year-old Austrian was called up last week by the Red Wings after scoring 23 points in 52 games at Rögle (another Detroit line at Rögle!), but suffered an injury in his first game on Sunday and he could not face the CH at the Bell Center on Tuesday.
It’s thinner on the wings. With hindsight, the choice of Filip Zadina in sixth place in 2018, ahead of Quinn Hughes, who nevertheless played in the yard of the Wings in Michigan, and Noah Dobson, hurt.
Zadina is slow to establish herself in the NHL. He has 68 points in 190 career games, and claimed just 7 points in 30 games this winter before the injury.
But another Swede, Lucas Raymond, had a sensational first season last year with 57 points in 82 games at just 19 years old. He’s less spectacular this season, but he’s just reached the 40-point mark nonetheless.
The Red Wings were bold in drafting 6-foot-6 goaltender Sebastian Cossa 15th overall in 2021, but strategy paid off for Yzerman with Andrei Vasilevskiy in Tampa in 2012. Cossa still has a ways to go to reach the NHL. Yzerman chose to send him to the ECHL to give him the opportunity to play more often and he is starting to regain his confidence, after a painful start to his career in the professional ranks.
In short, Detroit has several bright young players in its yard, but we understand Steve Yzerman to bet on the next two vintages, where he will hold four first-round picks and four second-round picks, to replenish the coffers even more.
With five games or less to go, the final berth will decide between the Anaheim Ducks, Chicago Blackhawks and Columbus Blue Jackets. These three clubs are tied on 56 points. Anaheim is two fewer wins than Columbus and two fewer than Chicago, and only four games left, compared to five for the other two.
The bottom team overall holds 25.5% of the draft in first place, compared to 13.5% for second. She also has a 44%+ chance of a top-two draft and can’t be left out of the top three.
The Ducks already have two of the best young centers in the NHL, Trevor Zegras, 22, 9th overall pick in 2019, 60 points in 77 games, and Mason McTavish, 20, 3rd overall pick in 2021, 42 points in 77 meetings in his first year with the pros. Imagine more with Connor Bedard or Adam Fantilli…
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