Weeks pass and the Canadian is approaching the first choice overall … but also moving away from it.

At Christmas, Montreal was located in eighth place in anticipation of the lottery, but also held ninth place due to the disappointing position in the standings of the Florida Panthers, whose CH held the choice thanks to the exchange of Ben Chiarot.

With a 6% chance of winning the lottery with their own choice and a 5% chance of winning with the Panthers, the Canadiens had almost as much chance of winning the lottery and getting their hands on Connor Bedard as the ranked team. ranked 30th (11.5%).

However, the fall in the CH classification is inversely proportional to the spectacular rise of the Panthers.

If the draft took place today, Montreal would draft fifth with its pick, but fifteenth with the Panthers, with a tiny chance (0.8%) of drafting… fifth.

The first batch is no longer within reach of the Panthers since teams cannot gain more than ten ranks by winning the lottery.

The Montreal organization therefore gains three ranks compared to December, but loses a 2.5% chance of winning the first prize.

Chances to draft fourth are still possible. The Anaheim Ducks, 29th overall, are 4-3-3 in their last ten games and sit four points behind CH. But these two teams have only twelve games to play. Montreal will have to continue to lose steadily and Anaheim to win at the same rate.

The Chicago Blackhawks, 30th, are six points behind the Habs, with a game in hand. The San Jose Sharks and Columbus Blue Jackets are even further away.

The Canadiens can still catch the 27th-place Philadelphia Flyers to drop from fifth to sixth, but the Arizona Coyotes, 6-2-2 in their last ten games, are almost out of reach with five points. advance on Montreal.

We’ve listed the fourth, fifth and sixth overall picks over ten years, between 2018 and 2009.

At the conclusion of a summary analysis, the chances of getting their hands on a first-line attacker or a first-pair defender are in the order of 40%. But you can also crash solidly, in almost one out of four cases. Talk to the New York Islanders. They’ve drafted four times between fourth and sixth in that span.

Michael Dal Colle and Griffin Reinhart were monumental flops. Ryan Strome and Nino Niederreiter have become NHL players, without being superstars. At least they were able to pick up some good draft picks for Reinhart in time, courtesy of the Oilers, and then get their hands on Mathew Barzal and Anthony Beauvillier.

The odds of getting your hands on a superstar in those waters are around 17%, but with a bit of flair and luck, there are Cale Makar, Matthew Tkachuk, Elias Pettersson and Mitch Marner. still available.

Quality obviously shrinks to 15th. Other than Dylan Larkin and J.T. Miller, there weren’t any big catches between 2018 and 2009, though Ryan Pulock remains a quality defenseman.

The Canadian still managed to get his hands on Cole Caufield at 15th in 2019 and Kaiden Guhle at 16th in 2020, two essential pieces for the reconstruction of the team.

4- Brady Tkachuk, Ottawa

5- Barrett Hayton, Arizona

6- Filip Zadina, Detroit

15- Grigori Denisenko, Florida

4- Cale Makar, Colorado

5- Elias Pettersson, Vancouver

6- Cody Glass, Vegas

15- Erik Brannstrom, Vegas

4- Jesse Puljujarvi, Edmonton

5- Olli Juolevi, Vancouver

6- Matthew Tkachuk, Calgary

15- Luke Kunin, Minnesota

4- Mitch Marner, Toronto

5- Noah Hanifin, Caroline

6- Pavel Zacha, New Jersey

15- Zachary Senyshyn, Boston

4- Sam Bennett, Calgary

5-Michael Dal Colle, NY Islanders

6- Jake Virtanen, Vancouver

15- Dylan Larkin, Detroit

4- Seth Jones, Nashville

5- Elias Lindholm, Caroline

6- Sean Monahan, Calgary

15- Ryan Pulock, NY Islanders

4- Griffin Reinhart, NY Islanders

5- Morgan Rielly, Toronto

6- Hampus Lindholm, Anaheim

15- Cody Ceci, Ottawa

4- Adam Larsson, New Jersey

5- Ryan Strome, NY Islanders

6- Mika Zibanejad, Ottawa

15- J. T. Miller, New York

4- Ryan Johansen, Columbus

5-Nino Niederreiter, NY Islanders

6- Brett Connolly, Tampa

15- Derek Forbort, Los Angeles

4- Evander Kane, Atlanta

5- Brayden Schenn, Los Angeles

6- Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Arizona

15- Peter Holland, Anaheim

Unsurprisingly, this second-round pick (43rd overall) in 2020 obtained with a first-round pick in 2022 (Filip Mesar) for Tyler Toffoli joined the Laval Rocket on Monday morning in anticipation of the last leg of the season.

Heineman, 21, a fast and dynamic winger, had a good training camp with the Canadiens in September. He would no doubt have fought for a position until the end, had it not been for an unfortunate injury.

Some have the reflex to compare him to Artturi Lehkonen because of his style of play. But in his last season at Frölunda, aged 20, in the same Swedish elite league (SHL), Lehkonen amassed 33 points in 49 games , and also 19 points, including 11 goals, in 16 games, to allow his team to win the championship.

Heineman had 15 points in 35 games this winter at Leksands, one point less in three fewer games than the previous season. He was relegated to the fourth line in the playoffs and was scoreless in three games. Expectations should therefore be moderated.

Leksands was eliminated by Rögle, the team of the hope of the CH in defense Adam Engström, 19, third round choice in 2022. This young man, after his season of 16 points in 43 games and a participation in the World Championship junior in a leading role, has scored two important goals so far in five playoff games.

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