Holger Schmieding, the chief economist of Berenberg, has published for the new year, thought-provoking lines. Schmieding recalls an old quip that the stock market in the past few decades, nine out of five recessions seen before. Wants to say: The stock market sees often also economically black, if it is not ordered to the prospects of the economy. This is perhaps the case today.
Schmieding remembers but also due to the fact that Economists tend to be more frequently, the danger of Recession. That is not wrong. The Deutsche Bundesbank used to a decades-old other quip to predict earlier in a recession until it was already over. Of course this is exaggerated, but many economic researchers have a hard time with pessimistic forecasts.
Many traders today do not know what to expect from the courses; many became after the losses of the previous months very careful. Caution is in doubt is better than Overconfidence, but maybe in the year 2019 surprised the traders Yes positive. In this sense: all the best in the new year!