The Surplus of the Federal budget in the year 2018, could be in the foreseeable future, the last. He was last seen in coalition circles is in the order of 15 billion euros. The perception of the true position is lagging behind the anticipated development. So far, the good state of the economy and the growing employment have ensured that the tax revenue reached only in the Year a new record, but also regularly about the expectations that the financial planning was based. It was raining money from the sky, the helped reliable, small sins, the so-called Grand coalition balance.

Manfred Schäfers

economic correspondent in Berlin.

F. A. Z.

Now, the economic prospects become bleak. German Council of economic experts, Bundesbank, economic research institutes – all of them have corrected their growth forecasts for the next year. For example, the Munich-based Ifo-Institute estimates the growth of the German economy in the year 2018 only to 1.5 percent, and for 2019 only to 1.1 per cent. Previously, the Economists were assumed to be 1.9 percent.

If the gross domestic product fails to be smaller, the total tax revenue. About 23 percent of the economic output currently to the tax office. For the Federal government alone, a billion gap will mean, if the current should be true tell. In addition, there are tax changes, which have not been taken into account in the most recent estimate, because they had no force of law. Keywords in this context, Family support, day care, tax incentives for the construction of apartment, the participation of the Federal government to the Refugee and, of course, the removal of the solidarity surcharge.

Foreseeable loads

all of This will lead either directly to a lower volume, or the distribution of the value added tax charged to the Federal change. Although there is some Provision in the financial planning process (“global revenue”), but this is not enough – even if the CDU should avoid it to keep track of your party tags a decision to the complete removal of the solidarity surcharge in this term seriously.

to make matters worse, in the past, funds for investment were provided, which are not flown down. They are transferable, which means they can continue to be issued. It is an order of magnitude of 7 billion euros. In addition, the budget 2019 last-Minute Changes, which are at first acceptable, but not in the longer term. The members have increased spending for 2019 short-hand to 4.3 billion euros. Experience shows that it is hardly possible to withdraw the money again the next year. Particularly impacted by higher Commitments for later years. Defense Minister Ursula von der Leyen (CDU) could look forward to an additional “commitment appropriations” of 5.6 billion euros, which will allow it to launch large procurement projects, it is a multi-purpose combat ship, transport helicopters, missile defense systems TLVS and U-boats. Overall, this obligation increased by appropriations of 13.4 billion euros.

Finally, there are stresses that are foreseeable, even if the decisions are based on. The payments to the European budget, the expenditure of the Nato in prospect of an increase in the defense and the goal, the share of development expenditure in the economy to keep output stable. Already in the year 2020, this according to estimates by the coalition of the expenditure of 5 billion Euro to the top. In 2022, 16 billion euros could be needed. Then there are the political objectives of the coalition, but not, or not sufficiently funded. The digital strategy with the promotion of Artificial intelligence, the support for a battery cell manufacturing in Germany, the tax incentives for the energetic renovation of buildings and tax incentives for research.