(Rome) Under the leadership of Giorgia Meloni and Marine Le Pen, the extreme right recorded a surge in the European elections, without however overturning the table or ironing out the differences that prevent them from forming a united front.  

At the head of the first parties in Italy and France, two major founding countries of the European project, the leader of Fratelli d’Italia (FDI) and the president of the National Rally (RN) will have to wait for the result of the French legislative elections on July 7 to count themselves and set their strategies.

President Emmanuel Macron dissolved the National Assembly after the crushing defeat of his majority against the RN and the major European maneuvers, which should in particular shape the future Commission, are frozen until the result of this vote.

Strengthened by their score in Italy and France, Germany, the Netherlands and Austria or Greece, the nationalist and radical rights intend to exert even more influence on the orientations of the EU but they remain divided into two groups (Identity and democracy/ID, European Conservatives and Reformists/CRE) and the balance of power has not been profoundly modified.

They have in fact recorded only a very modest increase in seats in the European Parliament, going, according to estimates, from 118 to 131 out of 720, while the “grand coalition” of the right (PPE), of the social democrats ( S 

They should also count on a reserve of around fifty MEPs of the same tendency but not belonging to the ID and CRE groups.

However, the EPP and its allies, weakened by the electoral rout of the presidential majority in France and the decline of Olaf Scholz’s coalition in Germany, will not be able to avoid occasional compromises with the sovereignist right.

“They will certainly have to send gestures to European voters on issues which were raised by these parties, in particular on two issues, immigration and the green pact”, analyzes Marc Lazar, professor at Sciences-Po and at Luiss University from Rome. “We will have a reversal of alliances on certain texts with converging votes.”

The European conservative and reformist MEPs come from Fratelli d’Italia, the Spanish Vox party, the Polish PiS and even Reconquête of the Frenchman Eric Zemmour.

Those of Identity and Democracy bring together in particular the Italians of the League and the French of the National Rally (RN). They recently excluded the German delegation from the AfD, following several scandals.

These two parliamentary groups have significant differences, such as on support for Ukraine against Russia and, pending the result of the French legislative elections, Giorgia Meloni has a clear lead over Marine Le Pen in terms of influence on European affairs .

The President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, EPP candidate for a second term, opened the door to an alliance with the ECR of the head of the Italian government, seen as a partner capable of compromise, pro-European and pro-Ukraine, unlike ID members, described as “Putin’s puppets.”

If Marine Le Pen raised the idea of ​​“a large sovereignist group” during the campaign, Ms. Meloni is wary of French “hegemonic” wishes and favors collaboration by issue.

“A hive cannot have two queens” and Meloni does not want to risk his new diplomatic “respectability” by forming an alliance with a group which until a few weeks ago counted in its ranks the infrequent AfD, underlines Daniele Albertazzi, of the group of reflection “Centre for Britain and Europe”.

“She wants to be seen as a modern leader when it comes to foreign policy, Europe, the United States […]. I think she wants to continue playing in the big leagues and focus on [her compromises] with the EPP,” he says.

Ms. Meloni also wants, continues the analyst, to be one of the leaders who will be able to claim the victory of their candidate to succeed Ms. von der Leyen, including if it is… Ms. von der Leyen.