The government has pushed through to pass a controversial pension reform and thus avoid a vote in the National Assembly that could have been against it. By playing the government’s commitment card, Emmanuel Macron has nevertheless continued to drive an ever-widening gap between the executive and the French. While social mobilization remains strong and the situation escalates in demonstrations, the Head of State remains inflexible. What are the next steps in the process now? Can Emmanuel Macron still reconsider his decision and cancel the pension reform?

The polls show it: the rag is burning between the President of the Republic and the French. Since the use of article 49.3 for the adoption of the pension reform and an interview qualified as a failure last week, Emmanuel Macron’s popularity rating has experienced a phenomenal drop in public opinion. These are, in fact, six points of positive opinion that have flown away, according to a BVA survey for RTL. This is the lowest level reached by the Head of State since the yellow vests crisis in November 2018. Dragged down in his fall, the Prime Minister, Elisabeth Borne, also lost two points in one month with only 28% respondents in favor of its action.

To stem this haemorrhage, the secretary general of the CFDT, Laurent Berger, clearly called on Emmanuel Macron to put the reform “on hold” in order to resume dialogue with the unions. On RTL, at the microphone of Amandine Bégot, he notably declared the need “to calm things down” during “a time of dialogue”. An initiative followed by many opponents of the reform such as Cyril Chabanier of the CFTC, former Prime Minister Bernard Cazeneuve or even Philippe Martinez of the CGT. Modem deputies also filed this request with Elisabeth Borne on Tuesday morning.

In this way, Laurent Berger explained that this latent time could calm the spirits and dissipate the wild demonstrations which currently dot the big cities of France. The goal? Rebuild a solid dialogue and resume negotiations on the important questions of the reform, in particular professional wear and tear, retraining at the end of the career or even the minimum for the branch.

For the time being, the executive, the unions and the French are awaiting the passage of the text before the Constitutional Council, which should decide on the future of this reform. After this decision, the President of the Republic will have to promulgate the law, according to article 10 of the Constitution of the Fifth Republic. This procedure will be carried out within 15 days of the decision of the Constitutional Council.

Emmanuel Macron could also choose not to promulgate the law, which has never happened in the history of the Fifth Republic. Only François Mitterrand had, at the time, refused to sign ordinances transmitted by his Prime Minister, but never a law. In the event that Emmanuel Macron backtracks, he could refer the pension reform to Parliament, still according to Article 10 of the Constitution.

The main opponents of the pension reform, however, rely on the precedent of the law on the equality of things of 2006. At that time, the creation of the CPE had triggered the wrath of student organizations before a law was promulgated, but not applied. Emmanuel Macron could thus follow this trail or else have to face the shared initiative referendum (RIP) launched by Nupes.