Everything seems to have started with the health crisis. In fact, of course, the economic crisis facing the world today is far from being the first. It is difficult not to think of the subprime crisis, to cite only one of the most recent, not to mention all those that occurred between the post-war period and the beginning of the 21st century. However, it is not because such a phenomenon may seem common that it has no real impact on the finances of French women and men. In the current state of things, indicates BFMTV on its site, three distinct effects are to be feared. The list.
The war unfolding on Ukrainian soil has played a major role in disrupting world trade… and has done so since the start of the post-Covid recovery, or almost. It leads, in fact, to a general increase in prices on a global scale. In Europe, it is estimated at 8.9% from July 2021 to July 2022, i.e. over one year. By comparison, the United States has inflation of 8.5% and it climbs to 10.1% in the United Kingdom. It is because of her that French women and men pay more for their races.
It is also because of it, in part, that we must fear a risk of energy shortage in Europe as well as a sharp increase in tariffs. The price of European natural gas has thus taken off by 315% since the start of the year alone. Without the tariff shield, put in place by Jean Castex on the occasion of the previous five-year term, the situation could prove financially very tense for households which do not heat themselves with electricity or which still cook with gas. Without forgetting, of course, the price increases on fuel…
Another no less important consequence of the global economic crisis that the French are also facing: the risk of a second crisis, this time food. The number of people facing acute food insecurity currently stands at 345 million people, according to the World Food Program (WFP). Three years ago, it was “only” 135 million.
Several factors, continues BFMTV, explain this dramatic situation. We must first mention the climate crisis, which leads to droughts and floods, de facto destroying part of the food resources that could benefit people struck by hunger. Moreover, we must also come back to the war in Ukraine, which is driving up world food prices; in addition to slowing down the export of certain goods.
Last consequence mentioned by our colleagues: global growth, estimated at 3.2% for the year 2022 and 2.9% for the year to come, appears to be at half mast. The latest forecasts, which date back to April 2022, were considerably more reassuring since the drop observed is between 0.4 and 0.7 points of difference, depending on the date chosen.
For the euro zone, of which France is obviously a part, the precise estimates are even lower: they peak at 2.6% and 1.2% respectively, for the years 2022 and 2023. Enough to escape a recession, but it is must still fear a substantial deterioration in French economic activity in the coming months, said Bruno Le Maire.
