Covid-19: possible scenarios for the continuation of the health crisis

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Vaccination, immune protection, wearing a mask… As autumn arrives, the eighth wave of Covid-19 seems to be asserting itself in France. This umpteenth rebound of the pandemic is probably not the last.

And yet, the director of the WHO, Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, proved to be optimistic by announcing in the columns of Le Figaro: “the world has never been in such a good position to put an end to the pandemic (…) the number weekly deaths fell to the lowest since March 2020.”

However, France currently has 33,263 new cases of coronavirus contamination… An increase of 67.4% in one week indicates Public Health.

The deputy director of the CNR of the Institut Pasteur in Paris explains to Figaro: “we know that we are now living with Sars-CoV-2. The epidemic waves should now follow one another, but we do not know anything about their seasonality and how this virus will cohabit with other seasonal pathogens such as the flu.

The lecturer in epidemiology at the University of Montpellier, Mircea Sofonea adds: “We manage to control the flu, because we know its periodicity, this is the element that we lack with the Covid.”

However, according to her, the Covid-19 virus is entering a new phase. “We are heading towards an endemic phase of the disease.”

In addition, the strong vaccination and the previous waves have provided the French with great immunity which makes it possible to avoid serious forms. Without however preventing reinfections. Will vaccination be sufficient in the future?

Two forecasts, one more optimistic than the other, seem to be taking shape for the experts. The first hypothesis is that the coronavirus could behave like a rhinovirus. Consequence: there would be no vaccine and regular infections.

These will not provide immunity against reinfection. On the other hand, the severe forms will be avoided.

Another option is to adopt regular vaccination campaigns as for the flu to protect against it.

As for the second scenario. It is not more probable than the preceding. This one, on the other hand, is unpredictable…

A new line of variant would upset all the predictions of scientists. These new mutations could potentially evade the immune system. Implying an outbreak of cases like the arrival of Omicron in December 2021. Worse, in addition to being contagious, the mutations could theoretically become dangerous…

“The problem is that we do not have the means in France to ensure surveillance, says Mircea Sofonea. We are turning the page, without having learned the lessons of the chapter that we have just finished”.