Covid-19: new pandemic, “unmanageable” winters… The authorities’ last 5 scenarios

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The subject is not necessarily at the heart of our concerns at the start of the new school year, where the conversation revolves more around the no less anxiety-provoking issues of inflation and energy shortages on the horizon of this winter. But the Covid-19 is still there.

There is even talk of an “eighth wave” of the epidemic, preparing to sweep over France when the mixing of schoolchildren resumes in all directions.

As of August 28, the nationwide incidence rate was 183 cases per 100,000 population, a “high and stable” figure according to CovidTracker. The positivity rate, meanwhile, was climbing to more than 17%, and the reproduction rate R, at 0.89 (we speak of the spread of the epidemic when that exceeds 1).

Data which, for the time being, does not worry many people, despite strong regional disparities.

In some departments, for example, deaths have increased worryingly in recent days.

But no matter, today, the French want to “live with the virus” rather than undergo, again, restrictions in spades. No more masks, few regular self-tests, and a gradual forgetting of barrier gestures, especially during the summer when there are more moments of conviviality.

These are also the areas that have experienced a good tourist influx this summer, which today have the highest incidence rate in France, like the Landes (incidence rate on August 28: 296 cases per 100,000 inhabitants).

“”SARS-CoV-2 is here to stay, given the still high levels of viral circulation and the possibility of new variants of concern”, warns the European Center for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) in a report published on Monday August 29.

The institution sets out, in this document, a “roadmap” for the future, establishing the 5 scenarios which, according to the researchers, could await Europeans in terms of a pandemic for the next 10 years. And some have cause for concern…

In our slideshow, discover these 5 projections, from the most optimistic to the most “black”.