December is traditionally a good month for the American stock exchanges. Since 1950, the broad stock index S&P 500 has risen in three-quarters of all years – more than in any other month. This year, little hope of a Christmas rally, but on Wall Street. The S&P 500 had eased in the last week by almost 5 percent, a very bad Omen for a final spurt of the year, even if the courses had a rest on Monday and Tuesday again.
Norbert Kuls
Freelance writer in the business.
F. A. Z.
traders on Wall Street seem especially continue fluctuating rates. The fear barometer, the Vix, the volatility index of the Chicago Board of options exchange CBOE, traded with a level of around 22 in the past few days, again above its average value in the past year (16). The Index represents contracts with investors against losses due to unexpected fluctuations in the S&P 500 can secure. A rise in the Vix signals that investors expect the subject to stronger Price fluctuations. A decline shows peace and stability in the markets.
traders watch for signs of a turnaround
in the longer term, the Vix is not at an extremely high level. Since 1990, the Vix average is around 19. But given the now almost decade-long bull run phase, the nervousness of the investors has risen significantly. Bullish phases never last forever, and the longer prices rise, the more accurate eighth stockbrokers on signs of a possible trend reversal.
How securities dealers respond to currently sensitive to the latest developments in the trade dispute between the United States and China, which could result in a weakening of both the global as well as the still robust American economic growth. To do this, interest rate hikes by the us Federal Bank. After a year long period with extremely low interest rates, secure fixed-income securities compared to risky assets such as equities as more attractive.
Some experts believe the re-strengthening of the fluctuations, moreover, a consequence of computerized investment strategies. Marko Kolanovic, head of the American Bank JP Morgan Chase, quantitative market research, keeps the fluctuations and setbacks in light of the still robust us economic data and solid corporate profits as excessive. Responsible for the negative sentiment, an increasing number of trading programs that automatically respond to messages, both on real messages as well as Fake News.
discrepancy of negative mood and economic reality
Kolanovic referred to in a report on publications on the Internet, the offer reports a mixture of true and false messages and distorted playback of Analysts. Behind these pages, local political groups, analysts, as well as foreign actors, the negative impact reinforced lines, to cause strife and confidence in the markets to undermine. “If we add to this the growing number of Algorithms that act on the basis of headlines, it can be the influence on price movements and investors psychology is so important,” wrote Kolanovic. Specific examples of the questionable web sites he called.
