Daniel CaballeroSEGUIRMadrid Updated: Save Send news by mail electrónicoTu name *

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Already in February began to be felt that something bad was about to emerge. The Covid-19 had its roots in China , and its expansion to the rest of the globe was going to be a matter of time. In Europe, first fell Italy and then Spain he followed that same path. The money is fearful and entrepreneurs repeat ad nauseum that they need a playing field stable to look towards the future; it met the first and second passed by. The coronavirus has caused business uncertainty to skyrocket to the maximum of the historical series, initiated in April 2005.

According to an index developed by a group funded with a grant to a research team of the scientific BBVA Foundation , in charge of the academics, Jorge Uribe, and Montserrat Guillen, University of Barcelona, Spain was recorded on the 18th of march to a peak of 1.63 points of business uncertainty. It is an index on one which means that the uncertainty is equal to the average of that market, between April 2005 and June 2020. A value above one indicates that the uncertainty is higher than the average. Therefore, in our country, the index was 63% higher than the average on that date.

“In most of the countries, especially in Spain and Italy, the values recorded on march 18 were a historical record. From there the figure stood and began to go down,” explains Uribe. However, there have also been slight upticks since then, as registered at the beginning of may. The tendency, then, progressed towards the reference value of the index -indicating less uncertainty, but negotiations frustrated as the extension of ERTE has provoked that ascended slightly.

“We had hoped that the uncertainty would come up and be placed in levels pre-crisis. But in march we get to those levels, and the third week of march was a high point. Never the index had been as high. The conclusion is that we approach a dangerous time,” explains Guillén. Thus, the figure reached in march is two tenths higher than the beginning of the 2008 crisis. In Spain, in October of that year he played the value 1,45, that was the peak of the series. But the Covid has broken that ceiling.

Europe, in the same line

In Europe the trend has been very similar. is Belgium has registered the business uncertainty highest of the countries of our environment with 1,94 points. Reached the figure also the 18 of march.

In Italy, another of the countries hardest hit by the pandemic, the index was 1.54 points in mid-march. In your case it also involved the maximum of the historical series. In France , the value reached 1,62 points on march 18. In Germany touched the of 1.64 points; and in Uk , the of 1.64 points also.

In all cases the data have already been moderate in recent months, with measures in place, but with the future still uncertain. The case of Germany is the only one that raises more controversy after having picked up it makes barely a month, although the evolution now becomes to be the low.

“The trend in the last few weeks is reduction, although some weeks we may see spikes, which are a little alarming,” says Guillén. And he adds: “The market is concerned”. In fact, the Ibex 35, in the Spanish case, still listed 15.3% below the levels of early march , when the pandemic began to be felt in Europe.