British pound: The currency market betting on a gentle Brexit

In the European business grows, the fear of a chaotic Brexit. At the world economic forum in Davos, bankers, and managers worried last week about a possible disorderly withdrawal of the British. However, in the foreign exchange market has claimed the British pound surprisingly good: Despite the escalation of the political crisis in London, the pound was quoted on Tuesday afternoon against the Euro, 2.7 percent higher than at the beginning of the year. Also against the Dollar, the British currency has appreciated in January.

Marcus Theurer

economic correspondent based in London.

F. A. Z.

Philip Plickert

editor in the business, responsible for “The economist”.

F. A. Z.

Before the important Brexit-votes on Tuesday evening in the British house of Commons, the players in the foreign exchange trading also remained behind. In view of the news situation, it seems a paradox, but among the traders, the opinion was clear that the risk of an economically damaging “No-Deal-Brexit” was dropped. Example, Goldman Sachs: American investment Bank estimated earlier this week in an analysis of the risk that it comes to this, only 10 per cent. A secondary outlet with a divorce contract is 50 percent the most likely scenario, and with 40 percent, the Goldman Sachs analysts in London estimate the probability that the British will not leave the EU at the end.

the situation is dire: Only nine more weeks until the agreed exit date on 29. March. The present Brexit Treaty with the EU, which would initially provide a gentle separation, to oppose the house of deputies two weeks ago with an overwhelming majority. Since then, the UK is increasingly in a political crisis, the government and the Parliament to the Power rings.