Back-to-school weather: what to really expect?


Heat, drought, fires… This summer, the weather is definitely not sparing France. Throughout the territory, the situation is increasingly critical. For farmers, winegrowers or construction workers, uncertainty reigns.

Unfortunately, the forecasts for the coming months do not give much hope for an improvement in the situation. According to Patrick Marlière, meteorologist for Agate Météo, “Concerning the drought, there will be no reversal of the trend in August”.

Indeed, even if major storms should arrive at the end of the month, this will not be enough to counterbalance the level of drought.

But before that, a new heat wave awaits the French, starting next week. “As of Monday August 8, a new episode of very high temperatures, even a heat wave, should reach the territory,” explains the expert.

Temperatures should therefore exceed 30°C over most of the territory, for more than five days.

“After the weekend of August 15, temperatures should return to normal for the season and therefore suffer a drastic drop for three or four days. However, we should face a resumption of higher temperatures, above 30°, just after. C, until the end of August”, analyzes the meteorologist.

In summary, for the month of August we can expect a new wave of heat followed by thunderstorms which will make it possible to obtain milder temperatures, before rising above the 30°C mark for the end. of the month.

Will the start of the school year be able to take place in milder temperatures? According to the forecasts of Patrick Marlière, this seems difficult to envisage.

“For the trend for September, there is very little change. Perhaps a very slight drop in temperatures.”, he specifies. The drought and the heat should therefore continue during the month of September, greatly increasing the risk of fires.

“There is also a significant risk of thunderstorms in the southern half of France and particularly in Occitania and around the Mediterranean basin. The high temperatures could favor particularly strong thunderstorms from mid-September”, warns the expert.

Between strong heat, drought and violent storms, the month of September could hold some surprises for the start of the school year.

October usually marks the beginning of autumn as we imagine it. This year, it may be once again very different since it should be a continuation of September and therefore August.

“The situation will be almost identical in October. We will certainly see a slight drop in temperatures, but they will still remain very high for the month of October”, underlines the expert. Indeed, according to its forecasts, these temperatures should still be between 17°C and 22°C for the northern half of the country and 23°C and 27°C for the southern half.

In addition, the storms should also continue around the Mediterranean basin and probably go up in the rest of the territory. For Patrick Marlière, “it’s very worrying, because the thunderstorms that follow episodes of high heat like these are extremely strong.”