A strong increase in the number of pensioners – Federal: In Switzerland in 2050 will live about 10 million people

A strong increase in the number of pensioners – Federal: In Switzerland in 2050 about 10 million people live, the population will concentrate in the future, especially in two regions. Of the Federal office for statistics, in his new forecast. 52 Kommentare52Viele people in a confined space: Festival visitors at the Openair on the Bernese belts KEYSTONE

The population in Switzerland is expected to grow in the next 31 years, to 1.8 million, to 10.4 million people. In addition, the population is aging, especially in the next ten years, before the aging slows down again. This forecast has been calculated by the Federal statistical office (FSO) in a published on Thursday in the reference scenario. Accordingly, the permanent resident population is growing in Switzerland in the year by an average of 0.6 percent.

The Federal office indicates that the Numbers before the outbreak of the Corona-created pandemic and were calculated. It is still unclear what the effects of the pandemic on the population development. The statisticians assume, however, that the consequences will affect the number of deaths, and net migration – the latter due to the economic crisis.

Two scenarios

The FSO has calculated a “high” and a “deep” scenario. In the high scenario increases assumed that the births are on the increase more, the life expectancy is a little faster and that the difference of in – and out-migration is slightly larger. In this case, the permanent resident population is expected to grow by 2050 to 11 million people.

The ” low ” scenario is calculated with a slightly lower net migration, a declining birth rate and a slower increase in life expectancy. In this case, the BFS of a population of 9.5 million persons in the year 2050 is.
According to the BFS result, three-quarters of the growth, not by births but by Migration.

A retiree to two workers

increase significantly in the next ten years, the proportion of people over the age of 65 years. The growth is likely to be in accordance with BFS almost 30 percent in the longer period of time from 2018 to 2050, the growth amounts to around 70 percent. It is the birth of a strong baby-boom cohorts. The increase is also due to the increase in life expectancy.

In absolute Numbers, this means that Switzerland will be in the year 2050, a total of 2.7 million persons aged 65 and over. For comparison: the end of 2019, there were 1.6 million. According to the BFS, but will increase not only the proportion of persons in retirement age, but also the working population between 2020 and 2050 by 12 percent to 5.6 million people.

The group of persons in retirement age is growing faster than the group of employed. 2019 for every 100 persons in the working age (20-64 years) 35 people aged 65 years and over. According to the reference scenario, the share is expected to rise by 2050 to 53 Retired.

According to the calculations of the BFS will focus on the population in the next three decades in the catchment area of the Agglomeration of Zurich and the lake Geneva area. A slight decline in population, the cantons are expected to record Ticino and Graubünden. The BFS starts from just under 5 percent.

In all other cantons are likely to grow the population. The strongest in the cantons of Geneva, Aargau, Zug, Vaud, Zurich, Schaffhausen, and St. Gallen. There is expected growth under the reference scenario to over 25 percent. All the cantons have seen a growth in the population by around 20 percent.

The Federal office for statistics has also taken up the development of the skills of the women. Accordingly, the proportion will consider qualified women in about ten years with that of men equal to him and then surpass it.

(SDA)

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