This Monday, July 17, 2023, the global average temperature reached more than 17°C, according to the National Centers for Environmental Prediction, or 0.85°C above “normal”. The temperatures of this mid-July exceed, or come close to, records, especially in southern Europe and in France.

This week of July 17, 2023, a heat wave hit Europe. A warm air mass has caused surface temperatures to rise sharply over the Mediterranean, producing a “heat dome” effect. It is a weather phenomenon “which occurs when hot air is trapped under an area of ​​high pressure”, explains Grégory Langlet, forecasting engineer at Agate Météo au Parisien. The air mass is unable to escape and a heat wave sets in.

This Wednesday, July 19, 2023, in France, the mercury reaches 40°C locally and 9 departments are placed on heat wave orange vigilance by Météo France. “In the south-east where we experience real tropical nights, that is to say without falling below 20°C. In Nice, for example, the thermometer has never fallen below 23°C since on July 7, even in the middle of the night”, specifies Nicolas Berrod, journalist specializing in health and the environment at Le Parisien.

The weather did not cool during the night and temperature records were recorded in the morning, especially that of Tuesday July 18. “We even exceeded 35°C locally at the start of the morning: in Saint-Girons (Ariège), we went from 17.7°C at 7:42 a.m. to 35.2°C at 8:36 a.m.”, supports Nicolas Berrod. If this week’s heat wave is gradually winding down, when will the next one be?

“In the short term, no new heat wave is expected in France in the coming days,” announces Nicolas Berrod, health and environment specialist journalist for Le Parisien. According to Météo France, a warmer than normal July/August/September period is forecast for the whole country. But meteorologists do not yet know when the next heat wave will take place. “A heat wave, we can seriously see it arriving ten days in advance”, explains Sébastien Brana, administrator of the Infoclimat site at Parisian. If we don’t yet know what August will be like, all specialists are worried: it could be 50°C in France in the future.

With global warming, the weather phenomenon of the “heat dome” will see its frequency and intensity increased. Extreme events of the heat wave type could thus become more numerous, longer and more violent. “Until we reach carbon neutrality, temperatures will continue to rise. It’s like a bathtub: as long as you add water, even if you add less and less, the level continues to rise. climb”, schematizes François Gemenne, president of the scientific council of the Foundation for nature and man in the pages of Parisian.

So what seemed unimaginable becomes more and more plausible: it could one day be 50°C in France. “The official absolute record in France is currently 46°C, recorded in Vérargues (Hérault) on June 28, 2019. Reaching the symbolic bar of 50°C during a heat wave somewhere in France seems plausible here the end of the century, because global warming will continue”, concludes Nicolas Berrod, journalist specializing in health and environment for Le Parisien