(New York) Oil prices fell on Tuesday amid concerns about strong Russian exports and flagging Chinese demand, with the prospect of a status quo from the OPEC alliance on Sunday.
The price of a barrel of Brent from the North Sea for delivery in July ended down 4.58%, 73.54 to dollars.
The barrel of American West Texas Intermediate (WTI) of the same maturity lost 4.41%, to 69.46 dollars.
“The upside scenario that the market was relying on was a rebound in Chinese demand and plummeting Russian supply,” recalls Eli Rubin of EBW Analytics Group. “But one way or the other, he has lead in the wing. »
Chinese industrial production in particular showed a much less acceleration than expected in April, as did retail sales or the granting of credit.
“Data due Wednesday should confirm the perception that the rebound has stalled and the Chinese economy is going to need government stimulus,” said Edward Moya of Oanda in a note.
The PMI activity indices for the month of May from the National Bureau of Statistics (BNS) will thus provide more information on the state of the Chinese economy.
As for Russian exports, they are currently well above their level at the beginning of February, when the authorities had committed to reducing their crude production by 500,000 barrels per day.
According to the Bloomberg agency, Russia even plans to increase its diesel exports by a third in June compared to May, or around 500,000 barrels per day.
Furthermore, “it is difficult to re-engage in oil as an OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies in the OPEC agreement) meeting approaches from which no further news is expected. decline” in production, Edward Moya added of the ministerial gathering on Sunday.
On top of all these factors, Eli Rubin superimposed the file of the American debt ceiling.
The White House and the Republican opposition in Congress announced on Saturday that they had reached an agreement to avoid the default, “but we see signs of resistance in the House of Representatives” as to the content of this compromise, underlines the analyst.
“As long as the text has not been adopted (it must be voted on by Congress), the risk of a crisis is not ruled out”, he believes, which weighs on gold prices black.