She just won the perch. Yaël Braun-Pivet will therefore be the first woman to take the presidency of the National Assembly. No less surprising: she was elected even though she did not currently hold a seat as a deputy at the time of the ballot. And for good reason ! When she took office, she had been Minister of Overseas for a month, as Planet has already been able to explain. Once again, it is therefore a personality from the presidential majority who will lead the Bourbon Palace. She succeeds Richard Ferrand, who also passed through the executive during the previous term.

It is far from being the only essential vote to be played at the end of the legislative elections. Another deadline of prime importance awaits parliamentarians: Thursday, June 30, 2022, they will be invited to appoint the new chair of the Finance Committee. Therefore, explains political scientist Christophe Bouillaud in our columns, it is not impossible to consider the days to come as decisive. At least with regard to the distribution of positions of power in parliament.

“The election of the President of the National Assembly does not involve as many stakes as some might think. This is a position that traditionally falls to the most important alliance or group. Therefore, the least we can say is that it was not really a surprise,” said the researcher, who teaches at the Institute of Political Studies (IEP, Sciences-Po) in Grenoble. According to him, the fact that a woman reaches this position is more a matter of political communication than of the real revolution, in this case.

“The election of the president of the Finance Committee, on the other hand, carries much more stakes”, judges the teacher. “Let us first recall that the idea of ​​a presidency of the Commission returning to the opposition is relatively recent in the history of the Fifth Republic. This is therefore an opportunity for the opposition to recover one more tool to criticize the executive’s budget management and this strengthens the role of public finance control. It is therefore a position that is as sensitive as it is decisive,” he adds.

“Two major options are emerging, explains Christophe Bouillaud from the outset, for whom the presidency of the Finance Commission can go to the NUPES alliance – in this case to Eric Coquerel – or to Jean-Philippe Tanguy, from the Rassemblement national. “If the RN candidate is supported by Les Républicains, he should be able to benefit from a majority and his election would significantly redefine the game in the National Assembly. A victory for the RN, carried by Les Républicains and by Renaissance, would split the Bourbon palace into two blocks ”, further indicates the teacher-researcher. With on one side the NUPES and on the other, he continues, “a large right-wing bloc, at least on the social and economic aspects ranging from Renaissance to RN”.

“If Les Républicains actually vote for the National Rally, it means that they recognize the proximity of their respective analyses. In fact, it is quite logical spatially… The far right and also the right”, underlines the researcher.

Very concretely, the election of Jean-Philippe Tanguy could also have an impact on the evolution of the tax discourse faced by French women and men. “The RN has long maintained a discourse legitimizing tax evasion”, recalls Christophe Bouillaud, who makes this other element a breaking factor in parliament. “It would be a relatively classic divide, with on one side a bloc in favor of redistribution and another which advocates lower taxes, the defense of property…”

Such a situation, believes Christophe Bouillaud, would not be without advantage for right-wing and far-right oppositions, which would then impose themselves as kingmakers.

“It’s a winning game, since the right and the far right will be content to approve the measures proposed by the presidential majority when they consider them positive and will reap the benefits of this action with their respective electorates. They will not, however, have to bear the media backlash. It will be up to the government”, explains the political scientist.

The potential gains for the National Rally do not stop there. “We have seen other similar situations in Europe in recent years. The Danish scene was quite similar to what could be done in France: the conservative government benefited from the support of a far-right parliamentary group. This obviously gave rise to agreements on immigration”, recalls the academic.

Therefore, a victory for Jean-Philippe Tanguy would quite mechanically lead to a right turn for this new Macron mandate. With the risk, quite limited for the National Rally, of being absorbed into a majority coalition or of being finally associated with the exercise of power.

“Let us also remember that a victory for the left propelling Éric Coquerel to the presidency of the Finance Commission would not allow the NUPES to recover real blocking power. Whatever happens, the left-wing coalition remains in the minority at the Bourbon palace and therefore only benefits from a power of nuisance. However, the mere existence of NUPES puts the finger on what should be done… but cannot be done at the same time. It is the expression of a real caesura that crosses the population about the market economy, suffering sectors, the hardening of the social conflict”, notes Christophe Bouillaud for whom the coalition of left forces translates this form of radicality.