A very sad record. It’s official: this summer of 2022 is one of the hottest since records began in 1900… In second place, just behind the terrible summer of 2003 when the heat wave killed nearly 20,000 people in France, and just before summer 2018.

Régis Crépet, meteorologist for La Chaîne Météo, regrets this podium with “fairly well marked” steps, articulating that the younger generations have already experienced the hottest summers ever observed in France.

Another inglorious record: this season was punctuated by drought, with a very significant rainfall deficit. “In July, it hardly rained, it was the driest month since 1959. We don’t necessarily have previous readings, but it may be one of the driest since the beginning of the twentieth century, we are certainly in a historic month of July”, explains the specialist.

In some cities of the territory, water was particularly lacking. Régis Crépet gives the example of Caen, where only 9 millimeters of rain were recorded in August. “It’s as little as in Rome, Italy!”, Notes Régis Crépet.

Should we expect a continuation of the drought this fall? While it is very complex to answer this question firmly, the expert notes however that the first forecasts envisaged “the continuation of a dry trend for the fall”.

“We were expecting an autumn deficit which would have been very bad news (…) it would be the worst case scenario because we don’t dare imagine what would happen if it didn’t rain in autumn or in winter”, continues the forecaster.

Overall, we could have expected a little more precipitation than in summer, but in quantities that are still insufficient for the season… Finally, the latest forecasts give a whole new perspective of the months to come.

While the seasonal forecasts were pessimistic, with the persistence of a dry trend, the latest models from La Chaîne Météo suggest a possible change for the fall. The latter could turn out to be less dry, with a return of precipitation to normal for the season.

“Please note, we are not talking about a rainy autumn, we are not there yet: but we have reassuring indicators, perhaps not in September or October but gradually. It will not be a deluge throughout France. (…) Autumn could finally be a little more humid and rainy than what we feared before”, articulates Régis Crépet.

In short, it would be more classic weather for the season, with temperatures still above average… Should we fear unusual heat episodes for autumn?

The meteorological expert predicts a mild autumn despite the rain. “It won’t rain every day, we will have very nice days in the off-season. In this context, there will be other days of good, warm weather: the month of September is still summery, it can still be 30 °C in places until the end of the month”, explains Régis Crépet. One thing is certain: we are on a “sustainably hot” trend, specifies the forecaster.