the THL has released a new version (you move to another service) the corona of the epidemic forecast of its today. The new estimate, the hospital will need about 11 300 people and intensive therapy 3 600.
at the Same time in hospital is estimated epidemic peak during the slightly more than 900 patients. Intensive care would be 280.
the Estimate is based on the Health and welfare of the institution and the university of Turku together to do the modeling, which is constantly updated.
a Key reason for the assessment increase for Health and welfare institute (THL) director Mika Salminen according to the Italian epidemic on the basis of obtained new information about the virus transmission from human to human.
– press the most new information is in the Italian epidemic made on the basis of an assessment of what is the corona virus R0 (R zero) of infectivity of the figure. It is just a little higher than in the previous chapters is assumed, Salminen said.
of infectivity chapter now is to get out of THL’s new in modeling upward on the basis of what information from Europe, mainly from Italy is the virus situation from the obtained data. Now it would be closer to two than one, either a 1.6, or 1.8 per person.
the basic assessment of coronal proliferation of terms is that if it is not limited to, one of the people to infect computationally 2,2 other people.
Last week, it was estimated that the government’s actions affected so that when people do not see as much of each other, one human to infect only 1.4.
between People contacts are too Salminen, according to the decreased population groups and depending on the location of 25-50 per cent. The virus that is tamed, but not enough.
THL:n the chief: hospital care for those who need the number unchanged
whether information on the severity of the disease now then, gotten worse, or improved?
Last week, the state council published a memorandum in which it had fallen as a corona to the sairastuvien, hospital care for the needy than the number of deaths to three of its self-chosen by chapter basis.
state council of the mild scenario, the infected would get 20%, moderate in 40%, and severe in 60%. The most serious scenario on the basis of the computationally hospitalization need even more than 32 000.
announced Today, THL:n the modelling work included in the chief Tuija Leino stresses that the state council of the memorandum was not modeled. That’s why it’s and THL:n the figures cannot be directly compared with each other.
Leino, according to hospitalization number of people who need has remained in the last few weeks intact.
– the magnitude of the class are unchanged, Leino said.
the state council has chosen the moderate scenario as a situation in which 40% infected. According to hospital care need to 8640-21 600 people.
THL:n this day reading nurse in need of the amount suitable for this fork. It would fit barely, get also mild scenario, where the hospital care section of the need is calculated to be between 4 320-10 800.
the rise of the adhesion number can not directly make a conclusion of hospital care necessary for growth.
the THL Salminen refers to Italy received new information, according to which a considerable amount, about half, corona infections is even an imperceptible slight.
the Italian data set, approximately half are so mild symptomatic, that they might not even notice being infected with. And another side is divided so that 80% of these is so mild symptomatic, that can be affected by disease at home and the rest may need hospital treatment, Salminen says.
by August 35-40% of the infected
Keskiura seems to be the most likely scenario when you consider how many finns get by the autumn infected.
Tuija Leino, according to some forty per cent of finns get infected in the next few months. The assessment is based, inter alia, on estimates of human contact the amount.
Share comes directly from the R0-assessment. (It) again is directly linked to the contact. That is, if adhesion is 1.6, then 35-40% can get 4-5 months of infection, Leino open.
Tuija Leino, it is clear that the government made restrictions have contributed to epidemic spread. The greatest impact is leino’s view that the risk group includes more than 70-year-olds have been able to isolate the contact from other people.
of Course these restrictions is relevant. If there was nothing to do, go towards the same situation as Lombardy in Italy, Leino says.
the most Serious model in intensive care need 5000
in Finland is now calculated, the need for treatment and developing of the two scenarios according to: the second you pick indication of be is estimated at 1.6 and the second at 1.8.
These bring the lower, or 1.6 is more likely, Leino said.
If the hospital treatment of persons in need of assessing the most serious scenario, i.e. the infectivity of the figure of 1.8, according to, they would be accordingly higher.
– Hospitalization needs during an epidemic in 15 500 patients with intensive therapy 5 000. In this case, the epidemic peak during intensive care treatment should be up to the same time, an estimated 500 patients, told THL bulletin professor Kari Auranen .
the power of the need for treatment assessment is taken into account in intensive care to the needy patients age distribution in France, told the chief physician Tuija Leino.
abroad back in is not the role of modeling in
instead, non-residents or from abroad have already returned to Finland by the finns, the amount has not been researchers in modelling or corona transmission of assessment in any role, Salminen said.
– the Figures are not based on them, Salminen said.
säätytalo on Tuesday of parliamentary factions corona assembly part of was born image, that the focus modelling should be done as a reaction to even hundreds of thousands of returning foreign finns because of that.
– Difficult to understand where such a perception might have been born, Salminen said.
Practical experience as part of the rendering
Another key criterion for modeling checking is done based on practical experience. It is estimated, inter alia, the health care capacity. The estimate is based on intensive care on discussions with experts, which estimated the efficacy of treatment needs and resources in different parts of Finland. Other than the corona of the reasons is due to intensive care requirements will not reduce any during an epidemic.
– note that all are in intensive care in the same line, due to the need for care COVIDIEN-19, or other condition, Salminen said.
Forecasts and data to refine and constantly changing epidemic progresses. Yle told me this morning that the reviews of the corona virus spread in Finland are deteriorated.
an Eye on it, too, that the European part of the population of working age have been hospitalized. In finland, hospital care, who needed working-age population has so far not been so great, that it could still draw conclusions about the hospital treatment necessary changes of different age.
18:29 Story updated: Added THL chief assess and comment on the fact that hospital care needs have remained the same in magnitude in both the infected-evaluation in Finland. Changed this also to the title.
Added reference to the state council last week announced a memory.
Added Mika Salminen information mild infections amount.
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