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The effects of the health crisis and the telework in the shopping basket will result in the market of great consumption to grow at 5.7% in 2020 , according to estimates from Nielsen presented in the Congress AECOC of Business Strategy and Marketing. The expenditure in the supermarket will slow down during the second half in a percentage of about 2.8%, very similar to that obtained in the weeks of 2020 prior to the health crisis. This forecast for the second half of the year, together with the growth of 8.8% registered during the first semester, points to a growth of the sector at the close of the year above 5%.
“The market must consider whether, given the dichotomy in the consumer, its portfolio of brands, varieties and formats are adapted and if you can provide for innovation relevant to both ‘targets’. We can be a good opportunity to make a strategic analysis of the assortment if we speak from the perspective of the distributor, and to rethink the role of the brand within the category for the manufacturer. In short, this moment, as complex as it is also an opportunity to analyze the value proposition to the consumer. Sometimes it is a little ‘chaos’ to order ‘inside the house’, says the general director of Nielsen Iberia, Patricia Daimiel.
Coldstream has highlighted to the small shops of proximity, the ‘discount’ and hypermarkets as the big winners of the process of desescalada. In addition, the growth of the sector of great consumption is related to the transfer of the expenditure before performing in bars and restaurants and now goes to the home.
One of the traits that keeps the consumer today is the reduce the frequency of visits to the store (cae 10%) , so that the ticket medium for purchase is also greater. By formats, the channel hypermarket recovers strength by offering large spaces where you can do all the shopping at once, while the “online” continues to grow at a rate of 70%. In fact, the large e-commerce consumption has grown from being a testimonial to have a role unexpected before the crisis of the Covid-19, with peaks of growth of up to 302% in the first moments of the crisis and an increase of sales accumulated of 71,7% at mid-year.
In the analysis of categories, Coldstream has noted that articles that were of great importance during the first weeks of the crisis, such as toilet paper or canned food, return to record sales levels normalized, while products related to hygiene, such as gloves, disinfectants, or soap from the hands, and the pastries themselves have consolidated their growth in the new normal.
Polarization of consumption
The aftermath of the health crisis will bring two major consumer profiles on which to direct the strategies from the second semester: the accommodated and adjusted. The first is seduced by the trend to premium beers, is a fan of the experience, purchase more food at home or to bring and invest in technology. In contrast, the consumer set will look over the budget, will search for price and promotions and will be more prone to disloyalty to brands.
Since Nielsen conclude that the market will need to design a new architecture of prices, combined with a promotional strategy more efficient, not in vain, for the sale in promotion in Spain represents 18% of the total market, but only a 29% win money, compared to 48% for the whole of Europe. “At this point, we already know that the exit from this crisis will not be in the form of a V, will be in the form of a U, and what we don’t know yet is how long will be the base of the U,” he explained from the consultant.
Another trend that will be reinforced is that of the “cocooning”, that power the home as a refuge. In this way, 43% of the spaniards change their habits of cooking and eating at home in front of the period anterior to the coronavirus.
As Nielsen points to 2020 as the year more complex to predict the behavior of the consumer , which is influenced by five elements that determine how and where you will spend the Spanish. These factors have to do with telework, with a potential of over 20% in the employed population; the hospitality industry, with 23% of businesses still closed; the drop in tourism, when in 2019, reached Spain 84 million visitors; a rate of unemployment can exceed 20% and a consumer confidence that has fallen 24 points with respect to 2019