the corona virus epidemic duration is still a mystery. The most recent estimates of the epidemic, or at least its first wave, takes us to the shortest in the middle of the summer.
the Epidemic duration have been trying to calculate and model the researchers Health and welfare from the department of THL:from and different universities. Social and health ministry chief of staff Kirsi Varhila presented the evaluation results on Tuesday yle’s A-studio.
– Lyhimmillläänkin we assume that we are talking about 120 days – so we are 3-4 months scale, Varhila said.
the calculation of the first week is the beginning of march. When it counted the 120 days ahead, we are in June-July turn.
the Shorter duration means a greater time number of patients to the epidemic wave in the middle. Varhilan according to the bands would be good to get even longer, so health care is not overloading. The goal is 160 days, which live on the end of the summer.
so far it is according to his forecasts. Until now, the assembly constraints are already improved them clearly, but how much, it is seen as a two-week time span. Today, Wednesday is probably the expected new tightening.
already, it seems that they come to bite, he adds.
Estimate: more Than 11 000 need hospital treatment
THL and university of Turku published today, Wednesday, also an assessment of the hospital care for the needy. According to it, around 11 300 people will need hospital care in Finland.
Here, among the approximately 3 600 need intensive care.
the modeling of the hospital care needs is predicted epidemic 18 peak week, half of which should be before the peak and half after. Here, too, in the calculations of the epidemic length is calculated for 4-6 months.
the Epidemic, however, can be different areas at different stages, so the prognosis is not the peak timing can directly interpret the size of the country concerned.
in the Model it is assumed that the hospital the person ending up in the hospital on average 10 days after infection. The hospital period, the average length is assumed to be eight days. Intensive care had in it is two times longer.
Lannistaako the summer heat of the epidemic?
the World has been considered, whether the approaching summer in the warm weather at least slow down the corona virus spread, as has happened with many other virus diseases.
European infectious disease agency, the ECDC, according to rising temperatures and more humid air did not seem to affect significantly the corona virus spread. The agency on Wednesday will be briefed by the virus seems to survive also in warm and humid conditions.
the ECDC said that although the previously known corona viruses resides specifically in the winter season, so far there is no evidence that the spread of the corona virus type would behave the same way. ECDC pointed out that the virus has managed to spread also in tropical climates, such as Singapore and China in Guangxi.
on the other Hand, in the united states Massachusetts institute of technology in working with the researcher couple has had time to publish a quick analysis of the topic Social Science Research network in the. (you move to another service)
according to researchers, 90% of the infections have occurred in areas where the temperature is varied between 3 and 17 degrees and where the humidity is varied between 4-9 grams between cubic metre.
in Countries where the average temperature has been more than 18 degrees celsius and air humidity of more than 9 grams of cubes, it is happened only 6% of the world of all infections.
the corona virus transmission sensitivity therefore seems to WHAT to study to be lower in warm and humid climes. This means that the corona virus will infect less-for example, in large parts of North America and Europe.
the Finnish point of view shame is that Europe and North America in the northern part of the circumstances forming this calculation, in accordance with until July disadvantageous for the virus. Thus, the time window for virus progression by slowing down ice we too short.
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