Daniel CaballeroSEGUIRMadrid Updated: Save Send news by mail electrónicoTu name *
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The public expenditure in Spain soar this year, up 52% on the GDP. So pick up BBVA Research in its latest study, which warns that its weight on the economy will grow between ten and eleven percentage points. More than half of the income generated in our country will have its reason of being, for the first time, the public coffers.
“This increase is justified by the atypical situation for the Spanish economy by the Covid-19 “, says the document. However, there is a risk that this anomaly is cronifique for a few years. The studies service of the entity considers that these spending levels so high they could continue giving to the future by the crisis of the coronavirus. Before this, the institution claims “to demonstrate that it is making the best uses of public resources”. Monitor that 52% translates to the real economy and is not left alone in numbers.
BBVA Research, also, broken down the items causing this increase in relative terms. Of the 10 point estimates, estimated that somewhat less than half is explained by the decrease of the GDP; the increase in unemployment would be guilty of a hike between one and two points; and measures such as the transfer of 17,000 million to the autonomous regions and the incentives to the STRONG will cause a rise of 3-4 percentage points.
Recovery of the contained
For the next years, if no other confinement, the economic recovery should pull down slightly on the expense. “If the GDP growth is around 7% the following year, only this factor would result in a drop of 4 pp in the public expenditure. On the other hand, the cost of the ERTE should be reduced, to the extent that the percentage of workers included in them is already decreasing significantly, and the same incentives have been modified to drive the activity,” explains the report.
Under this scenario, BBVA Research puts the emphasis on the need to approve a General State Budget (PGE) . It should be remembered that they continue, to this day, carried over the 2018 developed by the Government of Mariano Rajoy. Without forgetting, either, the design of a plan to reduce the public deficit, which also triggers this 2020.
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