It reintegrated, with force and noise, the public debate. Difficult to miss the pension reform, which the President of the Republic has placed at the center of all discussions. And for good reason ! After a first term that ended in his inability to transform the French-style intergenerational solidarity system, Emmanuel Macron appears literally “obsessed” with this project, says political scientist Jean Petaux in our columns. There was therefore no question of not trying again… Only this time, the President of the Republic no longer aspires to overturn the table: he intends to push back the legal retirement age to gradually force French women and French to work until at least 65 years old.

One of the questions that arises the most, however, is not that of the exact modalities of the reform. It is that of its political feasibility: more than questioning its economic necessity (often put forward by elected officials who defend Emmanuel Macron’s project), it is here about the way in which the president and his majority will approach the making of the text. of law itself. Many now fear an attempt by the government to force its way through. What exactly do we mean by that?

In fact, several options remain on the table for the executive. He can thus decide to present a separate bill, in a fairly traditional way, on which he will decide whether or not to invoke article 49-3. In the absence of an absolute majority in the National Assembly, recalls France Info, this is a fairly plausible scenario… Even if the presidential group will have to choose its moment well: it is not possible to resort to this article only once per session, precisely to avoid forced passages. Grilling such a joker can therefore be risky, in addition to exposing the government in the event of failure, as political scientist Raul Magni-Berton explained in our columns.

Another option, already mentioned in our columns: the Social Security financing bill for 2023. As the economist Alexandre Delaigue explained, opting for an amendment aimed at passing the pension reform on the PLFSS does not present any particular irregularity, on the constitutional level. However, this would guarantee (or almost) the possibility for the government to pass its law.

“This kind of initiative smacks, in fact, of the political expedient. It is difficult not to see in it a desire not to debate, since the budget is one of the texts of law that cannot not be voted on. It is a practical question: we must be able to pay civil servants next year, for example”, recalls the economist.

This choice also risks, underlines France Info, to antagonize the unions. The start of the school year could be quite tense…

Several, on the side of Emmanuel Macron, are already opposed to a possible passage in force on the side of the pension reform. This is the case of one of his first supporters: François Bayrou. The president of the MoDem, who was minister at the start of the previous five-year term, spoke out against any adoption of the reform without consultation. He also invoked “the spirit of the National Council for Refoundation”, of which he was entrusted with the presidency. That being said, he does not reject the use of 49-3, as the Huffington Post writes. “There is nothing infamous about using the 49-3. What is not normal is to use the 49-3 without the necessary preparation for the text,” he said.

The CFDT, which Emmanuel Macron may have considered an ally, has also positioned itself in the opposition. “If there is an amendment in the PLFSS on pensions, the CFDT, de facto, it comes out of the CNR and discussions on all subjects”, threatened Laurent Berger, its secretary general.