The plant of the year 2018 was not for the faint of heart: Brexit negotiations, trade war, crises in Argentina and Turkey, and Italy’s budget dispute with the EU weighed on the markets. After a strong start to the year, share prices fell markedly. The price of Oil, which first rose steeply and then fell just as abruptly. From the investors ‘ point of view, there seemed to be this year, enough reasons to make a bow to risk assets such as equities, especially since rising interest rates for additional step-down caused pressure.
Despite all the geopolitical and other background noise I see but a Central factor that should provide fundamental support: the robust American economy. When this grows until the next July, would be the current recovery is the longest in American economic history – longer than the previously longest expansion phase, which lasted from March 1991 to March 2001. Let us therefore look at the most important regions in more detail.
In the United States is the return to a more normal level of interest rates is in full swing. But Restrictive monetary policy of the American Central Bank is not therefore, still. Indeed, the current normalization phase is strongly reminiscent of the interest rate corrections to the years 1994/95 and 2004/05 in the middle of the respective economic cycles. Both times lasted for the recovery, after interest rates had reached a “normal” level, for several years, and the stock and real estate markets have reached new highs.
The majority of market observers comment on practically only the level and development of interest rates. In this case, the money and credit growth, the Central banks just as important a size. In order to enable a stable output growth, allowed to grow, the money supply and the loans, neither too fast nor too slow. In the case of a monetary and credit growth rate of below 4 percent, or around 4.5 per cent is nothing to be said for a sudden increase in expenditure, significantly higher Inflation or an abrupt rise in long-term interest rates. Quite the opposite: If the Trend continues, we should advise 2019, primarily due to lower inflation and a very flat yield curve see.
Thus, the probability is high that the Fed manages to pave the way for a recovery that lasts several years after 2019 or 2020 is reached, the “neutral” interest rate level. “Neutral” refers to the rate at which the economy cannot slow down, but growing. As long as the money supply is growing moderately and steadily, I see no inflation or risk of Overheating due to the tight us labour market, or the expansionary fiscal policy of the government. This in turn will limit the risk of a stronger rise in Interest rates and thus the downside risk for the stock and bond markets.
with regard to the commercial policy of President Trump, dampen the customs duties introduced, the volume of trade and increase costs for businesses and consumers in the United States by more expensive imports. As long as the consumption and domestic investment do not break in, however, should remain on the impact of the trade policy is limited. The United States is likely to of the customs of war, only a few tenths of a percentage point to economic growth costs and China only a little more.