BERLIN Yle told me this morning, how the corona virus test to the Finnish health care sustainability more heavily than previously estimated. THL is preparing a new modeling of how an epidemic spread in Finland.

an Indication of the future get looking at international assessments.

German quality newspaper Süddeutsche Zeitung published yesterday (you move to another service), a comprehensive, a variety of modeling of the present data case. Modeling are based on the Tuebingen university mathematician and epidemiology professor to develop a Covidsim (you move to another service)-software program.

the Case is the stopping.

It shows clearly what the research community is now trying to the world a message.

a pandemic of the body count in order to reduce is not enough “curve flattening” that infected spike mitigation. Social contacts limiting curves may be down, but the German calculations based on hospitals carrying capacity becomes overburdened, still, many of the coefficient.

#FlattenTheCurve is not a solution

in Germany is already limited in public life to a minimum and banned more than two spirit gatherings. In this stage, the exception action is told in a sustainable easter holiday over.

the Süddeutsche zeitung was published by the modelling show that the fight against pandemic is going to last much longer. Experts are now talking about one and a half years of durable state of emergency.

If the precautions to relax the easter, the infected spike moves in the case presentation modeling according to summer. Yet there is no research about how the seasons change affects the virus or does.

One of the paper presented by the scenario is constant precautions the turn of the year, but to lighten the category. Even hospitals treatment capacity would be exceeded and many would die of the lack. This despite the fact that Germany is now a double up in intensive care the number of places.

–#FlattenTheCurve to give a nice image, but only so long as graphics is not given correct information, the Süddeutsche writes on social media in the spread of the observation image.

COVIDIEN-19-patients were transferred Wednesday to a hospital in Leipzig.Hendrik Schmidt / EPAVasta vaccine brings relief

German models according to the way to secure health is adequate to continue the hard limitation act to the vaccine until now. Now the estimate is that vaccine development takes years and a half years.

English study now, let’s talk the word on the mitigation and suppression, namely, a slight extension and repression. Mitigation-model goal is to brake the spread of the virus but not prevent it completely. Suppression model the infection rate to decline and very low level – permanently, i.e. drugs or vaccine development until now.

Last week, the authoritative Imperial College research group in London estimates (switch to another service), that suppression of the virus containment is the only viable currently, in spite of the related uncertainty.

the Research on britain and the united states. Its estimate is that a mere corona epidemic a slight extension of the damming instead would cause in the Uk up to 250 000 and in the united states more than a million deaths. This on the assumption that hospital care would be enough for all.

the Research attracted the attention of many decision makers.

the Imperial College study after precautions have been tightened markedly in the Uk, Germany and now also in Finland. Corona is in many respects unknown, so political decisions supported by the use of now nimenonmaan these modellers.

But they, too, offer only very incomplete answers. Is not socially or economically realistic, that we will be able to catch up the development of a vaccine until. The modeling also does not know how to evaluate people’s reactions to quarantine or economic effects.

in Germany, is an acute care places with the highest number in Europe relative to population size.Sascha Steinbach / EPA

at Stake is the very lives of very many people, but also society’s sustainability crisis drags on.

Therefore, the final decision is always political.

the South Korean model also exhibited in Germany

in Germany have already started to think about ways to keep the infection rate down so that at the same time society lives can be even some way to restore to normal.

One of the Süddeutsche zeitung’s case presented a scenario is a wave motion, which restrictions to mitigate and tighten to the health care capacity. When the power to the place of treatment start to the end, the social contacts we are back to a minimum. In this model, there is a risk the situation got out of hands. And infections increase as waves would also mean casualties.

Another presented option is exposed trace of the sufferers of the collected transmission data with the help and extensive testing.

in South Korea infected spike has been pressed down by tracing the position information with the help of patients in contact with been. They have been tested and put in quarantine. In germany, this would require new legislation.

in Germany, health minister Jens Spahn is already the weekend for amending the legislation so that the transmission data use should be allowed. This means a radical change of privacy, and the proposal sparked heated opposition.

the Show has been pulled off the table, but only so far.

German health officials, corona infections following Robert Koch-insituutin is already preparing the model, in which susceptible have been traced, would be tested and put into quarantine.

Last week the institute published a job ad seeking workers Containment Scout-task, i.e. cropping partiolain therefore.

their responsibilities include contacting by telephone the corona of patients ‘ possible contacts.

Yet the information for the contacts on a voluntary basis. If the legislation is amended, in the future they can be collected in transmission of the information without asking.

add a topic:

the Latest information about corona virus: Uusimaa will be closed, because of the intensive care capacity is feared to be over the rest of the country – Spain state of emergency will be extended

THL:no forecast: About 11 300 people in need of hospital treatment and 3 600 in intensive care – the chief: “the Magnitude unchanged”

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