Two years after his election, Donald Trump plays big. On November 6, the Americans return to the polls for mid-term elections, the midterms. They will vote for the election of the 116th Congress, in renewing the 33 senators and designating the 435 members of the House of representatives. Beyond the Congress, at this day called ” election day “, a multitude of assemblies and local governments are renewed. Consultations are also held on the same day, for the sake of convenience and cost-savings.

Analysis :   The mid-term elections, “referendum” to risk for Trump

Majorities and participation : key issues

Rejection or support of the policy of Donald Trump ? Since the elections of 2016, the president’s party controls the White House, the Senate and the House of representatives. The challenge to the ballot of the November is, for the republicans, keep those majorities ; for the democrats to overturn them, in order to influence the policy implemented by Donald Trump, in particular concerning the fight against immigration or tax reduction. To consider a procedure of impeachment, the democrats should get a two-thirds majority in the Senate.

press Review :   Trump, supreme Court, health… what motivates american voters

participation will be particularly scrutinized this year. In general, the mid-term elections mobilize low — around 40% of the electorate — while the presidential election of 2016 has mobilized 60 % of the voters. The rejection — or support — Donald Trump is this year a subject of mobilization, according to the Pew Research Center. In October, a majority said that their vote would be an expression of opposition or support for Trump.

in The Senate, 33 mandates awarded in the game

the Senate is the upper Chamber of Congress. The senators vote including federal laws and to ratify the appointments made by the president. It is composed of one hundred members, two from each State, elected by direct universal suffrage for six years. Thus, the State with the least populous — Wyoming, 580 000 inhabitants — has-t-he of two elected officials, like California, the State’s most populous, with its 39.5 million inhabitants. Traditionally, smaller States and rural areas favor republicans.

Every two years, during the mid-term elections, the Senate is renewed by thirds : 33 or 34 seats are renewed. The Senate today, from the elections of November 8, 2016, is entered according to the 3 January 2017. The republicans have a small majority of 51 votes in the face of 47 democrats and two independents in Maine and Vermont, which are related parties.

on The 6th of November, the mandates of the 33 senators are brought back into the game :

– twenty-three belong to the camp democratic ;
– eight to the republican (or Grand Old Party, or GOP) ;
– two are self-employed, related to the democrats.

The goal of the republicans : don’t lose the seat

For republicans, the goal is simple : to keep the majority. In practical terms, they could even afford the luxury of losing a seat, as the voice of the vice-president of the Senate, republican Mike Pence, prevails in the event of a tie during a vote.

Good news for the president’s party : seven of the eight seats to defend are in States that have voted for Trump in 2016 : Arizona, Mississippi, Nebraska, Texas, Tennessee, Utah, and Wyoming. Nevada is the only State favourable to the democrats to have a republican senator on the hot seat.

The impossible goal of the democrats : to win three-quarters of the seats, and keep twenty-three

For democrats, the election promises to be more complicated. In addition to the electoral system unfavorable, ten of the twenty-five seats democrats or related parties presented in the game are in States won by Donald Trump in 2016. In five of them, he beat Hillary Clinton by more than ten points (North Dakota, Indiana, Missouri, Montana and West Virginia). Five of them are less embedded in the “trumpisme” : Florida, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin had brought their votes to Barack Obama in 2012 before we switch to 2016.

Has less of a setback in the electoral masterful, there is little chance that the democrats will win the Senate. According to the projections of seats at stake, the democrats could go from 49 to 44 seats (including two independents allied), the republicans from 51 to 50, while six States are still completely undecided.

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dark blue : States acquired the democrats. dark red : those acquired for the republicans. The gradients indicate the elections more open. brown : the States in dispute. The House of representatives of 435 districts in the game

The other legislative body in america, the lower House of Parliament, consists of 435 members elected by direct universal suffrage, the ballot, first past the post ” tour, for two years. Like the Senate, the House vote federal laws and holds the initiative for the vote on the budget. The Senate may amend or reject its proposals.

Unlike the Senate, the number of representatives is proportional to population. The country is divided into 435 “congressional districts” (districts), which each account for approximately 711 000 people. Currently, the republican party holds a majority of 235 seats, face to 193 democrats ; the seven seats being vacant.

To win the majority, it is necessary to have 218 seats.

Opportunity failover

Since the mid-term elections of 2010, the republican party is a majority in the House. This year, they represent an opportunity failover democrats. To hope to regain control, they need to win 24 seats, including in districts held by republicans, and where Hillary Clinton won in 2016. For this, they are banking on the unpopularity of president Trump.

A glance in the rear-view mirror shows that, since the second world war, the party of the president loses an average of 25 seats in the mid-term elections, and more still when he is in control of both chambers of Congress, as is the case today. Over the past fifty years, the democrats have managed the feat of winning more than 25 seats in only two occasions : in 1974 and in 2006.

The current photograph of the House of representatives :

republicans currently have a majority in the House of representatives of The 115th Congress seat since January 3, 2016, and until January 3, 2019.

The map projections of the elections to the House of representatives :

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dark blue : districts acquired the democrats. dark red : acquired the republicans. gradients report of the elections more open. brown : districts contested. Outside of Washington

beyond the renewal of the Congress, which sits in Washington, 6 665 seats of executive and legislative powers will be renewed across the country.

the local Assemblies, governors, mayors

The elections of governors will take place in thirty-six States and three territories (Guam, the Northern Mariana islands and the Virgin islands of the United States).

In most States, the legislature redraws the electoral districts of the Congress, the governor having a right of veto on these redistricting. The candidates who prevail in November will still be in service in 2020, at which time will begin the process of redistricting based on the results of the decennial census.

Among these thirty-six posts of governors, twenty-six are in the hands of the republicans, nine in the hands of the democrats, and Alaska is led by an independent.

Here is the map of the projections of election of governors :

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dark blue : States acquired the democrats. dark red : those acquired for the republicans. brown : the States in dispute.

The Americans will vote also to renew 87 of 99 legislatures of State and to elect many mayors.

Nearly 160 local referenda

the minimum Wage, electoral redistribution, the legalization of marijuana for medical or recreational use, expansion of Medicaid, abortion… voters in thirty-eight States will decide to 157 measures at the local level.

In about twenty States, voters will vote on measures related to redistricting, voting requirements, access to the polls, the campaign financing and ethics.

– In five States, they will vote on the legalization of marijuana for medical or recreational.

– In the six States, they will vote on tax measures.

– In five States, they will vote on the expansion of Medicaid (health insurance for individuals and families with low income and resources) or the financing of its expansion.

– Six States will vote on amendments to the law of Marsy (the rights of the victims).

– Three States will vote on the fossil fuels and renewable energy.

– Three States will vote on measures on access to abortion and its funding.

– Two States will vote on measures to increase the minimum wage.