Increase of 0.1 per cent in may – there Is no nightmare scenario in terms of unemployment?The unemployment rate in Switzerland increased less than expected. Seco is keeping its forecast for pessimistic and wants to revise. 0 comments concerning the rhyme of hospitality are already 10 percent without hiring: A waiter serves in Lausanne drinks.Photo: Jean-Christophe Bott/Keystone
the consequences of The Corona pandemic in Switzerland to a recession and layoffs. Nevertheless, the labour market experts of the Federal government have become a shade more optimistic.
the situation on The Swiss labour market was “historically extraordinary”, said Boris Zürcher, head of the labour Directorate at Seco, on Tuesday during a conference call. “In absolute Numbers we have counted, in the month of may, never before have so many unemployed in this year.”
Specifically, the number of Regional employment centres (RAV) registered unemployed almost 156’000 reached. For comparison: a year Ago, it had been good only 101’000.
in Addition, the ratio had increased from April to may, which experts according to the Seco-unusual. Normally, the ratio between these two months. Specifically, they rose in may, to 3.4 from 3.3 percent to seasonal factors, adjusted even to 3.4 from 3.1 per cent (for the report: unemployment to rise – especially in the hospitality industry).
Before the crisis – in February – was the unadjusted number is still at 2.5 per cent, in the last summer, had fallen even to a multi-year low of 2.1 percent.
The reason for the increase in unemployment, the consequences of the Corona are pandemic. Zurich pointed to the plant closures that occurred in the Lockdown. Employees with temporary contracts had been particularly affected.
Many companies had also imposed a Hiring freeze. Such have been the same for the many companies that relied on the Instrument of short-time work. “Such companies are allowed to set in this time, only in exceptional cases, new people,” says Zürcher. In may, there were, according to Zurich for 38 percent of all reservations for short-time work.
need for Revision in forecast
However, since may there were also several easing steps. And Seco has become because of this for the further development of the unemployment rate is slightly more optimistic.
the official forecast, which provides, to an annual average rate of 3.9 per cent in the course of the year, a massive increase in unemployment, there is need for Revision.
The domestic economy is coming faster in the gears than feared.
Boris Zürcher, head of the labour Directorate at Seco
“I personally at the Moment, as a pessimistic scenario, consider,” said Zurich, which held itself before the month deadline for individual months rates of 5 percent for possible. He wanted to set, however, no exact new values. Seco will publish next week an updated economic forecast, including forecasts for the unemployment rate.
Boris Zürcher, head of the labour Directorate at Seco, speaks during a media conference on the Situation of the Coronavirus.Photo: Anthony Anex/Keystone
Zurich said its slightly more optimistic point of view, so that the domestic economy in the Corona-Lockdown “faster in the gears than feared”. The darkest scenario has become less likely.
in Addition, there are, according to Zürcher, until now, no messages from the cantons of mass redundancies on a large scale. And also for the job seekers Numbers there were no signs of impending termination of waves. He acknowledged, however, that the export economy and tourism would be long term before the bigger challenges. This depended on the international economy.
exhausted, short-time working full?
A somewhat more positive picture, according to Zurich, also in the case of short-time work. The first Figures would indicate that the Instrument has been claimed in the month of March, slightly less than feared.
Concrete had not all companies have reported, and those actually implemented. The companies have until the end of June, their accounts to be submitted, and only then the picture will be complete.
Zurich also emphasised that the control and the prevention of abuse received a higher priority. “We will be looking for the big cases, and then to recovery.” The classic case is that a company applying for short-time work and settle – know the employees, but nothing about it.
Zurich is not that the percentage of black sheep has increased during the crisis. Because short-time working is now applied in a very wide, would increase the absolute number nevertheless.
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