Hotspot at the gates of Europe – In Libya, a battle of the alternate representatives of the Libyan citizens rages escalated the war. Now, it could come to a direct confrontation of Turkey with Russia and the Emirates.Tomas Avenarius, Paul-Anton Krüger 0 KommentareMit support Turkey: fighters of the internationally recognized unit of government of Libya.Photo: Goran Tomasevic (Reuters)
Hardly a threat to bombastic, to the warring parties in Libya to occur excessive. “In the coming hours you will see some of the heaviest bombing in the history of Libya,” announced major General Saqr al-Jaroushi on Thursday, as the Muslims all over the world, prepared to the highest holidays of Islam to the end of the Ramadan. The man is air force chief of renegade warlord Khalifa Haftar, as a field Marshal call. He controlled large parts of the country to the East and South, the call is one of the most sole ruler out.
The bombardment by France, great Britain, the USA and other Nato countries in 2011, al-Jaroushi as well, but the announcement of a further escalation of the civil war in the North African country to be feared. “We continue to see an alarming military Expansion as a result of the continuous use of increasingly sophisticated and lethal weapons by the foreign supporters,” warned the President of the UN special envoy Stephanie Williams on Wednesday in the UN security Council. This could lead to a “comprehensive proxy war” in Libya.
“Legitimate targets for our fighter jets”
meeting Russia and the United Arab Emirates could be on the side of Haftars on the Turkey. It supports the militias, which are loyal to the in the capital, Tripoli-based internationally recognized unit of government under Prime Minister Fayez al-Serraj. “All the Turkish positions and interests in all of the cities are legitimate targets for our fighter jets,” said al-Jaroushi. In Tripoli, we are taking this seriously, because, according to the government there, Haftar is said to have received at least eight fighter jets of Russian design, including six MiG-29 and two fighter-bomber type Sukhoi-24. You should by the Russian air force Khmeimim base near the Syrian port city of Latakia to Libya had been convicted – allegedly escorted from the modern Sukhoi-35 Jets to the Russian air force.
Whether the history with the escort is not secured. The delivery of fighter jets to Haftar but Western diplomats confirmed – they speak of much higher numbers. They see it as an attempt by Haftars supporters, whose recent military defeats compensate. Finally his troops had to vacate a strategically important airbase at al-Watiyah, near the border to Tunisia and have also lost in the greater Tripoli is becoming increasingly the terrain.
Haftar had launched in April 2019 an Offensive with the aim to conquer the capital and to take control over the whole of Libya. But had come in advance of his troops in the suburbs to a halt. Moscow and Abu Dhabi increased their support. Hundreds of mercenaries in the Russian military service provider group Wagner, is closely associated with the Kremlin, brought Haftar’s decisive advantages, such as the latest UN report on violations of the UN arms embargo. Also, the Syrian mercenaries, recruited from the ranks of the regime of President Bashar al-Assad, are fighting now, in addition to paid warriors from Chad and Sudan for Haftar. The Emirates have sent drones new combat and stationed in the Russian-made Pantsir air defense systems.
But Turkey pulled: President Recep Tayyip Erdogan had, in turn, bring-to-air missiles to Libya, presumably of the type Hawk, an outdated System from the United States, and jammers for electronic warfare. That was enough to neutralize the Emirati drones in the Metropolitan area of Tripoli. At the same time, Turkey sent additional self-produced Bayraktar TB2-combat drones, the Haftars supply lines attacked. His troops are some of the places lost to the coast at Tripoli and the air base of al-Watiyah.
Ruthless: The renegade warlord Khalifa Haftar.Photo: Reuters
For Turkish newspaper commentators, the victory seems to be already identified: “Haftars fortress is conquered,” writes the Pro-government newspaper “Yenisafak”. And in the case of “Yeni Söz” means: “For Haftar, the Countdown has begun.” You see Erdogan’s course is confirmed. Only thanks to the Advisory of Turkish officers Haftars troops were driven. On the side of the Serraj-government in a number of Syrian militiamen, who had previously fought against the Assad Regime; they are now being paid by Ankara for the use in Libya.
“The recent defeats and the destruction of the Russian air defense systems weaknesses Haftars Position in the Tripoli region sensitive.”
Wolfram Lacher, Libya expert,
However, the military successes of the Turkey could be made now by the recently delivered Russian combat aircraft destroyed – about such weapons, none of the warring parties in Libya had so far. “The recent defeats and the destruction of the Russian air defense systems weaknesses Haftars Position in the Tripoli region sensitive,” says Wolfram Lacher, Libya expert at the Stiftung Wissenschaft und politik in Berlin and one of the world’s best connoisseur of the situation. You could have a dramatic effect on the morale of his forces and the cohesion of its Alliance, he says. “The arrival of Russian combat aircraft could prevent the Domino effect, the Haftars Alliance threatens. It is still debatable whether Russia really is ready to a direct clash with Turkey in Libya” – the Turkey, installed air defense systems is likely to be among the first targets of Russian fighter jets. Turkey threatens with the “severe retaliation”, which could also apply Haftars headquarters.
Lacher believes it is possible that the threat of use of these combat aircraft is insufficient, the Turkey and its Libyan allies of another to dissuade advance. Then it could be a new edition of the Russian-Turkish Initiative to negotiate a ceasefire, he prophesied. And in fact, the Russian foreign Ministry said on Thursday after a meeting of departmental chief Sergei Lavrov and his Turkish counterpart, Mevlüt Çavusoglu, the hostilities would cease immediately and the “political process” under the Aegis of the UN will be resumed.
the struggle for regional supremacy
But the Skhirat agreement by 2015, which is the basis of the mediation efforts of the UN, had announced Haftar recorded, apparently, without all of its supporters and reassurance. Moscow is likely to have, according to the assessment Lachers now, however, considerably more influence on the field Marshal as just a few months ago, since the forces have to fear, without Russian support further defeats. It should come but for the use of combat aircraft, then the Lachers would take the view that the previous assumptions about the Russian involvement in Libya, the question: “It would then be a unremarkable and a little costly, but would bring Russia into direct confrontation with Turkey.”
The escalation spiral continues – with the constant Fighting and arms shipments to both sides. This may also be due to the fact that Turkey and the UAE provide an ideologically motivated struggle for regional supremacy. Erdogan and the on the part Serrajs fighting militias from Misrata close to the Islamist Muslim brotherhood. Political Islam, however, the Emirates will see as the root of all the problems and the origin of Islamist terrorism. They operate together with Saudi Arabia, and – since the military coup in 2013, Egypt the counter-revolution to the Arab spring. The Turkish newspaper “Yenisafak” wrote Mohamed bin Zayed al-Nahyan, the crown Prince of Abu Dhabi and the mastermind of the aggressive foreign policy of the Emirates: “This man fights everywhere with the Turkey. He will be buried in Libya, he will be beaten in Yemen, and the Gulf of Basra.” This could soon be the new locations of this proxy war.
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