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Some more and others less, all the social strata have been affected by the Covid-19. And the great fortunes are not an exception. The collapse of the market in march because of the expansion of the pandemic, the confinement, the subsequent economic crisis… all of it has influenced the heritage of the richest . Although these have been some months taking strategic positions to save the year. Difficult task knowing how they sank, the indices in the worst of the disease, although not impossible.
A report of Oliver Wyman and Morgan Stanley puts figures in the coup who assumed the crisis to the heritage of the great fortunes. Both companies face three scenarios: base, rebound accelerated and sustained recession. In the first estimate his riches will fall 4% (3.1 trillion dollars) in 2020; in the second, which will register an increase of 1%; and in the third, that the breakdown will be 10%. These data contrast with the 6% estimated growth of these estates before the Covid-19, even after several years with very high rates of profitability by continued buoyancy in the markets –and with the exception of the wear stock of 2018, when the fall was widespread–.
As an example of the evolution of the markets is the Ibex 35, without going any further, although by the constraints of Europe has little to do our with parquet flooring, the american, for example. The selective Spanish, from January to July, it has been left up 23.2% of your quote. The declines have covered almost all the values, and gradually begins to be perceived a certain bounce. In the rest of countries of our environment the landscape in Bag is similar, although the recovery is still faster. This contrasts with indices such as the Nasdaq, which already is moving now again in highs .
The context was dramatic especially in the months of February and march, the worst stage of the pandemic. Neither small nor large investors escaped the losses, the falls were to lead on major Exchanges world-wide. Before this, the large estates were not long in reacting. “In these times of turbulence we have noticed is that more and more savers come to ask for expert advice”, says José Luis Santos , deputy director general of Banca March and responsible for the Area of Wealth management.
however, not everyone suffered or acted like in the face of uncertainty. “All the clients take a risk and see it your way. Some more and others less. The perception of risk and how to face the clients the losses depend on the portfolio and the personality of each one. That said, the client is more conservative, takes a very bad fall, but is recovering quite. Among those that are most risky, most are closer to ‘tie’. Even, there are already investment portfolios as a positive, as those who entered in march and are targeting a 20% to 30%,” explains Gonzalo Murcia , director of the team of Advice of BNP Paribas Wealth Management . As things are, financial sources point out that although during the first months of the pandemic there was more reluctance to take positions in the market, now the movement is remarkable. All that those who endured the collapse of the start of the Covid can try to close the exercise with a profitability flat, at least.
a Great opportunity
Murcia points out that the majority of large fortunes see the current situation as an opportunity”, but not thinking about Spain but on a global level. Going down to the local level, confirms that you are all customers “very worried” about the impact of the crisis, which is not the same in all the geographical areas. In this sense, stresses that his main concerns are in the economic evolution of our country, taking into account that the recovery here may be slower than in other european countries.
For this last reason, the assets higher “have reviewed what exhibition to Spain and if it makes sense to continue or not invested in the country.” The opportunities, says Murcia are on a global scale, in countries such as the united States, but not only. And the focus it puts on a series of economic dynamics which are expected to revolutionize the economy and styles of life. “With the crisis have identified many issues that are going to change, many disruptions,” he says. Specifically, the executive board of BNP Paribas explains that now the opportunities are in the hands of these great estates lie in technologies such as 5G , or artificial intelligence; also in the health sector, in digitization and in the deglobalization, by the breaking of the chains of value and supply. For this reason, they are currently looking for this type of challenges of investment in companies of medium capitalization. Not so much in the Apple, Facebook, and company, but in other emerging businesses, but as statements that have to do with these areas. So, Saints, Banca March, pointing to trends such as digitalization or sustainability are called to stay within the portfolios of the investors: “Not only will maintain, but that is going to accelerate as a result of the Covid-19”.
long term Investment
Roberto Scholtes , director of Strategy of UBS Spain , points out that from the point of view of management of the portfolios the reaction of fortunes has been kept invested, and that there has been some movement. “Around two-thirds have made movements of more than 15%, which we rate as significant changes,” he says. What they are looking for these high net worth individuals, in addition, are long-term investments that will give them profitability. And in these last few months, the payoff has been conspicuous by its absence.
In terms of public debt, Scholtes suggests that a quarter of customers have opted out of these markets and focus on gold and corporate bonds. “Replaced debt-ridden countries by companies of higher quality,” he says. The main reason is the lack of economic return on those assets. As noted Murcia, “what to buy government bonds or Treasury bills has gone down in history”. In contrast, in the field of real estate, from UBS indicate that 12% of investors have decided to increase their positions; the position contrasts with the thought of BNP Paribas, to whose judgment this market has not had movement but that will come in the future very good opportunities to invest in those companies in need of capital. A capital of the great estates will have to make their “bets”.
In the case of UBS, despite everything, are cautious about the possibility of regain lost ground and portend a time of more than a year, maybe year and a half, to retrieve the numbers of heritage prior to Covid. Of time, financial sources suggest that the market is in constant motion. The rich, but now they have seen diminishing its heritage, you will end up recovering the money lost. The focus in these moments is, according to count, to know take advantage of the opportunities in equities , in certain sectors of technology, health… but not so much in Spain, but also in the regions that have really started the recovery.
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