Greece is in 2019, prior to the parliamentary elections, which is why the left-wing government of Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras distributed with your household many choice gifts. However, the EU-Commission, did not irritate and ruled that the Greek budget be met for 2019, both the requirements of the stability and growth Pact as well as the agreements with the creditor countries. There is no contradiction: Because the government Tsipras piles since two years of Surpluses, which go far beyond the goals of the redevelopment plan for Greece.
economic correspondent for Italy and Greece, with seat in Rome.
F. A. Z.
From the perspective of the government of Tsipras, it’s about redistribution of wealth in Greece, which he can present itself in the election campaign, as the representative of the Malcontents and the socially disadvantaged. The conservative opposition party Nea Dimokratia makes a different statement: “The Overachievement of the budgetary targets, with excessive taxation on households and firms, and the delay in the expenditure, especially for investment, is undermining the growth prospects of the country,” says Christos Staikouras, Deputy Finance Minister of the conservative government until 2015 and is a member of the shadow Cabinet of the current opposition leader, Kyriakos Mitsotakis.
remember in Athens, published in German “Greece-newspaper” to the never-failing cornucopia of Amhaltheia from Greek mythology. Around 1.4 million families received in December a “social dividend” of up to 1350 Euro. Of the 115,000 retired members of the public service and the armed forces was paid for before Christmas as a compensation for earlier cuts in compensation of net 233 million euros. Because the government had to abolish under pressure from the creditor, the reduced VAT rate for remote Islands, there are as of this year in the Form of a pilot project within three years, up to 570 million euros in fuel subsidies. Around 250,000 self-employed, from the farmer to the lawyer, were 2016 enraged by their increase in the contributions for pensions and health insurance to at least 27 per cent; now, you will receive a discount of one-third. Even the Greeks hated real estate tax will be slightly reduced. The minimum wage from 586 euros gross to be raised. Even shepherds and livestock breeders in remote regions should not go empty-handed, for a one-time Transfer of 42 million euros was provided.
The most important choice of gift, however, is not connected with a payment, but the postponement of the 2017 under pressure from the creditors agreed last pension reduction of a total of 2.06 billion euros, or 1.1 percent of gross domestic product (GDP). The government wrote to the EU Commission that the net cost of this waiver is in only 335 million euros, accounted for, because in the case of a reduction of more social aid due to be made. With this Argument, the EU has accepted Commission for the provisional waiver once the long-contested Restructuring implied.
“the Sharp recovery in 2019 is unlikely,”
been substantiated, The reduction of pensions and increase the pension contributions for the self-employed were once some of the basic Considerations: The pension funds had previously, to the pension with low contributions, beneficiary Self-subsidize. For the pensions of the Greeks, there was a total of a dozen cuts, because Greece had already an expensive pension system with many privileges and because on the other hand, the rapidly falling gross domestic product also required cuts to pensions, the share of the pension system on the GDP (2016 about 16 percent) does not rise. But fundamental and long-term decisions are not to be found in the spending decisions of the government of Tsipras. Will be paid once after the checkout location at an always newly defined group of beneficiaries, if the budget targets were exceeded. With this method, it was already the case in the past two years, a social dividend, of around 700 million euros by the end of 2016 and EUR 1.4 billion by the end of 2017.
From 2018 to Greece in the budget, excluding interest costs, a primary surplus of 3.5 percent of GDP. According to calculations by the EU Commission, Greece would have reached without social dividends and choosing gifts in 2018, a Surplus of 3.9 percent of GDP in 2019, even 4.1 percent of GDP. After taking into account the addition of the government by 2019 is to reach spending, a primary surplus of 3.6 percent of GDP. However, the bill is based on an optimistic government forecast for real growth of 2.5 percent this year, while the EU Commission says it is only a growth of 2 percent. For those critical of the government and liberal Economists, even this number is questionable. The economist and former IMF consultant, Miranda Xafa comments: “Because the government increases social spending gives priority to investment and tax, is a strong recovery in 2019 is unlikely.”