Full of doubt starts France to the stock exchange in the year 2019. The year-on-year, the brought for the flagship index, the CAC-40, the sharpest loss in value since 2011, wants to forget quickly, but his low foothills seem to reach the new year. On the political Front, the situation remains tense, because of the persistent protest movement of the “yellow West” puts the government under pressure and thus casts doubt on the remaining reform prospects in France, awakens.

Christian Schubert

economic correspondent in Paris.

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at the same time, the international environment is not true joyful. The Brexit, fears of a recession in the United States and a growth slump in China – all of this combined with fears of increasing protectionism: A scenario for a Film about a black year on the stock market would probably look much different. So the stock analysts remain very cautious in their assessments. Your descriptions about the possible course of the current year range from “complicated” to “very variable”.

Roland Kaloyan, a strategist for European equities at Société Générale (SG), for example, the CAC-40 at the end of this year, at 4500 points, around 200 points below the current level. “The most important reason is that the American market is back,” says Kaloyan; a recession in the United States at the beginning of or in mid-2020. “We also expect a decline in Growth in China this year, is also set in the year 2020,” says the equity strategist for the SG.

The big corporations in the CAC 40, the are a lot of export, or in major foreign markets, invested heavily, are not immune to this pressure. Laurent Denize, Fund Manager at the French Bank Oddo BHF Asset Management, says, however, that “everything can run in the one as in the other direction”. Nevertheless, efforts are made to have as much optimism as possible. The purpose of optimism?

FRA40 — — (–) ParisBNP Paribas 1T 1W 3M 1J 3J 5J For detail view

Oddo, it holds at the beginning of this year, anyway possible, the CAC-40 by the end of 2019 spent 8 to 10 percent higher than at the beginning of January. However, it will take a while until the stock markets regain confidence breathed. A lot depends on how the trade running talks between China and the United States and how the Brexit realize, says Denize.

consequences of the “yellow West”protests for the exchange

in addition to the Brexit wait in Europe for more uncertainties: How are the elections to the European Parliament in may, who is the successor of Mario Draghi at the head of the European Central Bank? The Italian government debt to the Euro, a further stress test? Ensure, before the exchange should not prove true enemy developments, the CAC-40 back to work in the first half of 2019 through the 5000-points-limit, some analysts in Paris. But then it could go quickly downhill.