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The Foundation for Applied Economics Studies (Fedea) he points out that the activities most affected by the crisis of the Covid-19 and you see “seriously threatened” by the bud are concentrated in the tourism sector and certain service industries, such as hospitality, sports and entertainment, while noting that the activity “seems to be played as background” and gives way to an “incipient recovery process.” Yes, ask to make a “good use” of the european funding and a “rigorous” selection of projects to finance.
as directed in the fifth bulletin of the follow-up to the crisis of the Covid, which collects a battery of indicators that facilitates the monitoring of the effects of the pandemic on the economic activity and public accounts, where he notes that the data of production and effective employment suggest that the activity “seems to have touched already fund”, giving way to an incipient process of recovery that began in may in the construction and in June in the rest of the sectors.
In the second quarter seen as a “clear recovery”, with an improvement of ten points in the index of overall activity based on GDP. The sectors most affected by the initial shock improve significantly , notably the construction, with an index of relative production doubles between the two periods.
however, the levels of activity of some sectors continue to be “extremely low”, highlighting the sector of trade, transport and hospitality, which is just over 50% of your normal level of activity.
In this regard, points out that the activities most affected is focus on the tourism sector and certain branches of service, highlighting the hospitality services (meals and accommodation) and the sporting and entertainment activities, which in July had lost between one-third and two-thirds of his or her occupation to be “normal”.
In this sense, warns that the recovery of these sectors, in addition, is being “seriously threatened” in the last few weeks by the rebound of the rate of spread and the restrictions imposed by some major emitting countries of tourists travel to Spain.
In territorial terms, the regions most affected by the crisis are being, as one might expect, the island communities due to the high weight of the tourism sector, as are the Canary islands and the Balearic islands.
even Though tax revenues continue to deteriorate due to the delay existing between activity and fundraising, Fedea highlights that the spending on unemployment benefits and contingencies similar has begun to be reduced to “significantly” and consumption, and the recruitment have begun to refresh after the end of the confinement.
despite the evolution of “positive” of the labor market in the month of July, Fedea points out that this improvement has had a disparate impact on unemployed persons depending on the duration of unemployment.
In particular, while the unemployment of short duration has fallen significantly, long-term unemployment has continued to grow, increasing in 208.000 people (16.8%) from February. In this way, and as in previous economic crises, regrets that “re-played one of the problems is socially more costly and more difficult to solve.”
On the “significant discrepancy” that has occurred in the second quarter between the data of the EPA and the Social Security in relation to the destruction of employment and other variables of interest, as the coverage of the ERTES , considers that it might be related to the practical difficulties that the pandemic has generated to perform the survey.
In connection with the measures against the crisis, appreciating that the European Council approved the creation of a european fund recovery endowed with 750,000 million euros between loans and grants non-returnable, of which it is estimated that Spain will apply to you, about 140,000 million.
In his judgment, establish the necessary mechanisms for the development and implementation of recovery plans that have to ensure the “good use” of these funds and for the “rigorous” selection of the projects to be financed must be one of the priorities of the next few weeks or months.
two Other issues “a priority” for Fedea in the very short term are the preparation of the next school year, and the adaptation of the legal framework and the judicial system to deal with the “expected avalanche of bankruptcies and business restructuring” that will occur in the next few months.
one month after the start of a course that will be marked by the uncertainty about the evolution of the pandemic, writes that the ” it is not clear that they are taking the necessary measures to ensure that the schools will be provided with the human resources and technology needed to perform their function under circumstances that may be very complicated.”
Looks similar to the situation in relation to existing mechanisms to deal with the financial difficulties facing many companies in the coming months, including predictably to many beneficiaries of the loans guaranteed by the ICO.
For Fedea, the State should review the rules of bankruptcy, and the regulation of the guarantees of the ICO in order to adapt to the current situation and equip you with the processes of restructuring and liquidation business for greater agility and flexibility as possible.
Among other things, seen to be necessary to avoid that the entities are forced to execute the guarantee the ICO prematurely before the fear of losing it in case of a restructuring of the loan, since it would facilitate the operation would be the consolidation of the debts with all administrations (Social Security, Finance and warranties of ICO) at a unique mass-negotiable as part of the restructuring process, with a single representative and the general waiver of the privileges common to the public administrations in this type of procedures.
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