Corona-crisis and trade war – For the world economy, the signs continue to point to storm, The situation in the domestic economy has brightened. However, the export sector is an additional threat – which could prolong the crisis in Switzerland. Markus Diem Meier2 Kommentare2Die support of the Swiss Exports, the Pharma industry remains. For the employment, but it has very much less significance than other industries: Novartis employee in a factory of the pharmaceutical company in Nyon. Photo: Salvatore Di Nolfi (Keystone)
As the economy in the Lockdown put, could not be the forecasts is bad enough. Meanwhile, the mood is tilted almost into its opposite: Everything is not so bad, is it now. This view is based mainly on a previously better-than-expected development of the domestic economy. The low point of the economic crash is probably behind us, it does not mean, however, that the crisis is already over.
In presenting his forecast for Switzerland the economic umbrella organisation Economiesuisse compared the views with a “bent V”. “After a rapid partial recovery in the summer of 2020, the burden follows the path back with a little momentum,” explains chief economist Rudolf Minsch. While Economiesuisse bases its forecasts on surveys of companies. Thus, even at the end of 2021 will be the gross domestic product (GDP) of Switzerland is still below that of last year. And unemployment is expected to rise until next year to an average of 4.3 percent.
a Bleak Outlook for the export sector
concern mainly the export sector. From a slightly better position, only companies reported in the survey of Economiesuisse from the domestic economy. The foreign trade but for the economic development of Switzerland, at least the same importance as domestic demand. The Swiss export suffer your, because they can sell abroad only a little, threaten income and job losses. And, ultimately, on a still lower consumption and less investment on domestic demand.
in view of the economy of the world is broke in trading since the start of the Crisis are already clear weakness in many countries. According to the first quarter, exports to Switzerland have to Pay 3.4 percent, but that was Mainly due to the pharmaceutical industry. They dominated in terms of value, Swiss exports. However, their share in employment in Switzerland is only about a fifth of those of the rest of the industry. And suffers from together with the tourism under a strong downturn in the global economy. And the prospects have not brightened since the Lockdown. “The export sectors reports, almost exclusively of deterioration or of an unchanged difficult Situation,” writes Economiesuisse.
New restrictions on world trade and investment have risen sharply.
the paragraph are not difficulties in the course of the Corona-crisis is the only Problem. The conflicts that have kept the world economy prior to the crisis in breathing, threatening with the Corona-to exacerbate the pandemic even further. “The pandemic has reinforced the movement away from a greater Integration of the world economy to a greater fragmentation yet”, writes the Organisation of the developed countries of the OECD in its last week published world economic Outlook. New restrictions on world trade and investment had increased by leaps and bounds.
A new book with the title “Trade Wars Are Class Wars” (trade wars are fighting class), the in Beijing, teaching Economist Michael Pettis has published together with the Economics journalist Matthew Small, clearly shows why the free trade is already pushed in the last decade, more and more resistance, especially in the United States. The authors explain the increase in inequality within many countries on the one hand, and with the importance of the US dollar and the us capital markets on the other.
in Beijing, teaching Economist Michael Pettis has been writing for many years about the deeper causes of the global trade disputes. Photo: PD”, Trade Wars are Class Wars” (trade wars are class wars) is the name of the new book from Michael Pettis and Matthew Small. So far, it is only in English for around 40 Swiss francs available.1 / 2
The Rich in countries such as China or Germany, whose share increased in the total income, to consume a lower proportion of their income than the rest of the parts of the population. With greater inequality, the demand within these countries is reduced. To make up for this loss of Demand could be due to Surpluses of exports, especially of China and Europe in the United States. There, in the Form of high foreign trade deficits showed.
Because the Americans have the Dollar as the global reserve currency and also the most important capital market in the world, invest the richest in the world, their savings, especially in the USA. This influx of capital allows it to the Americans, the trade surpluses of the rest of the world to buy. However, the deficit of the United States in foreign trade, the demand for U.S. products at the expense of going. Especially in those Parts of the US economy, which came through the export competition under pressure, and has therefore built up a large frustration towards the Chinese and the Europeans. With Donald Trump, the export losers have a powerful voice.
Trump continues the deficits of the USA with the loss of his country, and he has set a goal to eliminate these. So far, unsuccessful. As the Economist Michael Pettis notes, will change in the face of the international role of the US dollar and the US capital market for the time being, nothing.
In a sign of the crisis in all countries, but given the weakness in consumer spending in the country only exports. As the OECD writes, suffering, moreover, everywhere the lower classes the most. Thus, the Argument gets even weaker demand from the Pettis and Small additional weight. For these reasons, it is anticipated that there will be fierce disputes to the foreign trade.
it is not excluded Switzerland. Already the Americans under observation, to manipulate the Swiss franc in order to gain export advantages. The developments in the global economy remain for our open economy, is basic to the greatest concern.
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