Bankruptcies and layoffs in the tourism – “We big the wave is, we do not trust tell us to”Corona provides, according to a study of an unprecedented break-in. Who is most affected and how the recovery should proceed, show the forecasts of the KOF-economic researchers.0 comment jobs will be lost in tourism: staff at a Reception in a Swiss Hotel.KEYSTONE/Urs Flueeler
After a record year in the crash is now in the Swiss tourism. The Start in the past winter season had been promising, said the economic research centre of the ETH Zurich (KOF) on Thursday in a Communiqué. The corona pandemic, have brought tourism to a standstill. In March, virtually all the foreign guests, the Switzerland would have to leave Switzerland. The Nights spent in Hotels fell by 62 percent.
In April it was even worse. 90 percent of the hotel occupancy had ceased to exist, said KOF Director Jan-Egbert Sturm in an Online media conference. In may, the slump is likely to have amounted to 80 percent. For the entire winter season 2019/2020, this means a decrease in the number of overnight stays by 23 per cent compared to the previous year’s season, noted the KOF.
The number of overnight Stays is expected to have fallen to 12.9 million. These are 3.8 million Nights, less than in the Winter of 2018/19. Without a Coronavirus, there would have been a growth, said storm.
Dark prospects in the summer
For the summer, it looks, despite the gradual loosening even darker. Here are the KOF is forecasting a drop of 37 percent. The Swiss will spend your vacation this summer, increasingly in their own country, could not make the elimination of the foreign tourists betting. For the summer season, the KOF expects a divers Nights on 14.2 million from 22.6 million in the previous year.
Especially, the cities were affected. Here, the load is expected to travel because of the event of prohibition, the collapse of the business and changes in behaviour more than halve. The cities would not benefit from the fact that the Swiss would make more in their own country on holiday, said KOF-tourism expert Florian Hälg in an interview with news Agency AWP. The demand of the Swiss in the city hotels are likely to fall by a fifth.
there has been a Dramatic slump in the number of tourists from distant countries, whose Nights are likely to melt from 6.6 million in the previous year to 1.7 million together. Especially those Hotels would suffer, which had specialized in Asian guests, said storm. Asians would be more likely to stay in cities than in the mountains. The facilitation for the travel restrictions for countries outside of Europe are likely to come only in the autumn.
In the case of the domestic tourists it is likely to be in the summer, however, a strong recovery, said storm. In July and August, the KOF expects a Plus of 10 to 15 percent compared to the previous year. Of these, especially the Alps and the Ticino would benefit.
However, the domestic demand will not be able to compensate for the loss of foreign demand in the summer by far. While the number of overnight Stays will halve in the cities more than the amount of the decline in the mountains about 20 to 30 percent, estimates the KOF.
1.8 billion loss in sales
throughout The year 2020 the number of overnight stays will decrease compared to the previous year by 31 percent. While the Minus losses to the domestic demand, with 14 percent, comparatively low, is the decrease in the international business of solid (-45 percent).
on the whole, attributed to the KOF due to the Coronavirus with a loss of 14.3 million overnight Stays in tourism year 2020 compared to the scenario without the pandemic. The Swiss Hotels are expected to lose 1.8 billion Swiss francs in sales.
Steep recovery is not enough
In the next year, it’ll then back up a steep incline to go. The Nights in Winter are expected to grow by a quarter, in the summer, or just under 60 percent, estimates the KOF. Despite the marked recovery in 2021 will not reach the level of 2019 yet again, said storm. This is expected to take until 2022.
First, going to recover the demand in Europe. The guests from distant countries, the increase will go to Asia faster than in the case of the American guests. The number of North American tourists is likely to reach in 2022 the level of 2019, said storm.
This has a massive impact on the industry. The KOF Director, expects a wave of bankruptcies in the Swiss tourism industry. “We big the wave is, we do not trust to tell us.” It’s going to be a painful structural adjustment.
a wave of redundancies is to be feared. The current 200’000 employees were on short-time working. The be three-quarters of the workforce in the industry. No other industry is so heavily affected by the pandemic. The business climate is broken. “We have not seen times to times of Frank shocks in the years 2011 and 2015,” said storm.
(sda/cpm)
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